Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
Louisiana at James Madison, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Louisiana 24–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was an 88% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:51 left): Pass Interference on James Madison, 11 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Louisiana.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 14 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 James Madison about even · −21 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 2, James Madison wins 8.
- 1 UL 27 JMU 13
- 2 UL 28 JMU 24
- 3 UL 15 JMU 17
- 4 UL 17 JMU 24
- 5 UL 24 JMU 34
- 6 UL 14 JMU 28
- 7 UL 14 JMU 31
- 8 UL 3 JMU 26
- 9 UL 0 JMU 28
- 10 UL 7 JMU 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 21% of them, James Madison 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 3.4% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 17.1% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 40.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 51 yds blocked · 52% expected
- M. Suarez, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
- M. Suarez, 24 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 7 for 58 yards, James Madison 8 for 82 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:41 | Illegal Block on Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% JMU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 15 yards | +2% UL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:51 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 11 yards, wiping out the play | +11% UL +5.6 pts |
| Q2 2:04 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Face Mask on Louisiana, 15 yards | +2% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:28 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +7% UL +3.4 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +3% UL +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:27 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards | +5% JMU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 5:59 | Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:07 | False Start on Louisiana, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:07 | False Start on Louisiana, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:20 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +3% UL +1.7 pts |
| Q4 2:04 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 14 yards | +1% UL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 7 yards | +1% UL +0.6 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:51 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% UL | UL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 6:48 | T. Sterner had a 51-yard field goal blockedKicks · 52% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +5% JMU | UL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 3:16 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% UL | UL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:41 | M. Suarez missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +6% UL | JMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:05 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% UL | UL: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 14:28 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% UL | UL: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 7:27 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% JMU | JMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:33 | James Madison converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +4% JMU | JMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 9% · James Madison 91%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 8.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 21% · James Madison 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
James Madison
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