Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Texas Southern at UTEP, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
UTEP beat Texas Southern 51–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTEP wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UTEP was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Texas Southern Tigers | 10 |
|---|---|
 UTEP Miners | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 UTEP about even · 0 Texas Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas Southern wins 0, UTEP wins 10.
- 1 TXSO 17 UTEP 28
- 2 TXSO 24 UTEP 42
- 3 TXSO 7 UTEP 30
- 4 TXSO 10 UTEP 37
- 5 TXSO 0 UTEP 31
- 6 TXSO 3 UTEP 37
- 7 TXSO 10 UTEP 48
- 8 TXSO 2 UTEP 45
- 9 TXSO 0 UTEP 49
- 10 TXSO 0 UTEP 57
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas Southern wins 0% of them, UTEP 100%. The line is what actually happened: UTEP by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Texas Southern by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| UTEP by 17+ | 94.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Arana, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- C. Arreola, 35 yds made · 76% expected
- M. Arana, 31 yds missed · 86% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Texas Southern 15 for 127 yards, UTEP 5 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:29 | False Start on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:51 | False Start on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:39 | False Start on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:05 | Delay of Game on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:56 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 13 yards | 0% TXSO +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:56 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 13 yards | +1% TXSO +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:09 | Holding on Texas Southern, 10 yards | 0% TXSO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Delay of Game on Texas Southern, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2:12 | Illegal Formation on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | Illegal Substitution on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:10 | Illegal Block on Texas Southern, 10 yards | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:30 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | 0% TXSO +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:04 | Holding on Texas Southern, 8 yards | 0% UTEP +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas Southern, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:19 | Holding on UTEP, 8 yards | 0% TXSO +1.9 pts |
| Q4 14:21 | Roughing the Passer on Texas Southern, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:40 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 15 yards | 0% TXSO +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas Southern, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas Southern, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:25 | False Start on Texas Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.6 pts |
When it happened
UTEP’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:06 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +1% TXSO | UTEP: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:05 | Texas Southern converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% TXSO | TXSO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:53 | Texas Southern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% TXSO | TXSO: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:47 | Texas Southern was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +1% UTEP | TXSO: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:56 | Personal Foul on UTEP, 13 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on UTEP, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +1% TXSO | TXSO: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 9:49 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% TXSO | UTEP: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:09 | UTEP converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedHolding on Texas Southern, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UTEP | UTEP: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:00 | UTEP converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% UTEP | UTEP: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas Southern 0% · UTEP 100%
- Final margin
- UTEP by 41
- Luck in points
- 6.9 for UTEP
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTEP by 34.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas Southern 0% · UTEP 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Texas Southern · 
UTEP
More from Week 2 2026
- Illinois State at Northern Illinois ILST 28–24 · replay 17% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Air Force NDSU 38–32 · replay 19% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Wyoming WYO 21–13 · replay 42% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Hawai'i HAW 29–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Montana State at Nevada MTST 20–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- Cal Poly at San José State SJSU 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- UNLV at North Texas UNT 44–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Miami MIA 77–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico UNM 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Southern at Houston HOU 77–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Grambling at TCU TCU 63–7 · replay 100% for the winner