Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Grambling at TCU, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
TCU beat Grambling 63–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, TCU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff TCU was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Grambling Tigers | 7 |
|---|---|
 TCU Horned Frogs | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 TCU about even · 0 Grambling
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Grambling wins 0, TCU wins 10.
- 1 GRAM 28 TCU 52
- 2 GRAM 24 TCU 59
- 3 GRAM 3 TCU 45
- 4 GRAM 3 TCU 49
- 5 GRAM 13 TCU 63
- 6 GRAM 10 TCU 65
- 7 GRAM 14 TCU 73
- 8 GRAM 3 TCU 66
- 9 GRAM 3 TCU 70
- 10 GRAM 10 TCU 84
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Grambling wins 0% of them, TCU 100%. The line is what actually happened: TCU by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Grambling by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Grambling by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Grambling by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| TCU by 17+ | 98.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Grambling 5 for 30 yards, TCU 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:47 | Pass Interference on Grambling, 10 yards | 0% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:46 | Holding on Grambling, 9 yards | 0% TCU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:16 | Delay of Game on Grambling, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% TCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Personal Foul on Grambling, 2 yards | 0% TCU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:20 | Kick Catch Interference on TCU, 15 yards | 0% GRAM +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:51 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards | 0% GRAM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:18 | Illegal Block on TCU, 10 yards | 0% GRAM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:36 | Pass Interference on TCU, 10 yards | 0% GRAM +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:58 | False Start on Grambling, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TCU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | Personal Foul on TCU, 15 yards | 0% GRAM +0.9 pts |
When it happened
TCU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:59 | Grambling was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +0% TCU | GRAM: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:23 | D. Alfaro had a 20-yard field goal blockedKicks · 94% expected for him | +0% TCU | GRAM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:06 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% GRAM | TCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:30 | TCU converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +0% TCU | TCU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:36 | TCU was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% GRAM | TCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:25 | Grambling was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% TCU | GRAM: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 0:21 | TCU fumbled and Grambling recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% GRAM | TCU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 14:00 | Grambling was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% TCU | GRAM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Grambling 0% · TCU 100%
- Final margin
- TCU by 56
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for TCU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- TCU by 50.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Grambling 0% · TCU 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Grambling · 
TCU
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Weber State at Colorado COLO 52–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Western Carolina at Cincinnati CIN 62–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Arkansas at Utah UTAH 43–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- UT Martin at West Virginia WVU 52–7 · replay 99% for the winner