luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Western Carolina at Cincinnati, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Cincinnati beat Western Carolina 62–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 99% favorite.

Final

Western Carolina Catamounts 10
Cincinnati Bearcats 62

September 12, 2026 · Nippert Stadium · Closing line: Cincinnati −36.5

Luck index +2 Cincinnati about even · −2 Western Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Western Carolina wins 0, Cincinnati wins 10.

  1. 1 WCU 21 CIN 28
  2. 2 WCU 27 CIN 38
  3. 3 WCU 21 CIN 37
  4. 4 WCU 16 CIN 37
  5. 5 WCU 20 CIN 44
  6. 6 WCU 35 CIN 63
  7. 7 WCU 24 CIN 56
  8. 8 WCU 21 CIN 56
  9. 9 WCU 17 CIN 58
  10. 10 WCU 7 CIN 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Western Carolina wins 2% of them, Cincinnati 98%. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 52.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Western Carolina by 17+0.0%
Western Carolina by 9–160.4%
Western Carolina by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cincinnati by 1–85.3%
Cincinnati by 9–169.2%
Cincinnati by 17+83.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to Cincinnati: the final margin was Cincinnati by 52, without the luck Cincinnati by 47. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. McCollum, 33 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Western Carolina 5 for 45 yards, Cincinnati 10 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:13 Offside on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WCU +0.7 pts
Q1 11:47 False Start on Western Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +1.3 pts
Q2 12:35 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards 0% WCU +0.8 pts
Q2 8:16 False Start on Western Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 5:35 Personal Foul on Western Carolina, 15 yards 0% CIN +1.6 pts
Q2 1:31 Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 13 yards, wiping out the play 0% WCU +2.4 pts
Q3 13:55 Face Mask on Cincinnati, 15 yards 0% WCU +0.9 pts
Q3 13:40 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards 0% WCU +0.6 pts
Q3 13:20 Holding on Cincinnati, 7 yards, wiping out the play 0% WCU +3.2 pts
Q3 11:31 False Start on Western Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 11:31 Delay of Game on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WCU +0.7 pts
Q3 3:32 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards 0% WCU +1.2 pts
Q4 14:30 Face Mask on Western Carolina, 15 yards 0% CIN +1.6 pts
Q4 9:38 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WCU +1.8 pts
Q4 4:45 Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards 0% WCU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Cincinnati’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Cincinnati was ahead in it, below while Western Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:21 Western Carolina converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% WCU WCU: Field goal
2 Q1 11:26 Western Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% WCU WCU: Field goal
3 Q1 8:57 B. McCollum made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +0% CIN WCU: Punt
4 Q1 7:37 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +0% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:04 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +0% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:35 Personal Foul on Western Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:15 Cincinnati converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +0% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:31 Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% WCU WCU: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Western Carolina 0% · Cincinnati 100%

Final margin
Cincinnati by 52
Luck in points
4.9 for Cincinnati
Luck-adjusted margin
Cincinnati by 47.1
Replay with same day's form
Western Carolina 2% · Cincinnati 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Western Carolina · Cincinnati

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