Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Oregon at Oklahoma State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma State beat Oregon 39–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Oregon: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 89% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Oregon was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:33 left): Face Mask on Oregon, 15 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Oklahoma State.
Final
 Oregon Ducks | 31 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 39 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Oklahoma State about even · −4 Oregon
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 0, Oklahoma State wins 10.
- 1 ORE 22 OKST 27
- 2 ORE 9 OKST 20
- 3 ORE 13 OKST 28
- 4 ORE 17 OKST 35
- 5 ORE 16 OKST 38
- 6 ORE 14 OKST 39
- 7 ORE 14 OKST 42
- 8 ORE 10 OKST 42
- 9 ORE 7 OKST 45
- 10 ORE 0 OKST 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Oregon
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Oklahoma State it would win 89% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
86 points apart for Oregon: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.07 | worse by 0.11 |
| Oregon defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.01 | worse by 0.22 |
| Oklahoma State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | −0.01 | better by 0.25 |
| Oklahoma State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.11 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 4% of them, Oklahoma State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma State by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 1.0% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 7.2% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 11.1% |
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 77.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Keltner, 20 yds made · 94% expected
- G. Hurych, 42 yds made · 68% expected
- S. Keltner, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- S. Keltner, 44 yds made · 65% expected
- S. Keltner, 31 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Oregon 6 for 50 yards, Oklahoma State 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2:09 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | +2% OKST +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:22 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | +2% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OKST +1.2 pts |
| Q3 2:11 | Face Mask on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +5% ORE +1.7 pts |
| Q4 11:33 | Face Mask on Oregon, 15 yards | +14% OKST +3.8 pts |
| Q4 10:21 | Delay of Game on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OKST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:18 | Delay of Game on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% OKST +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma State’s chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:04 | Return touchdown by OregonSpecial teams | +9% ORE | ORE: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 4:37 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% OKST | ORE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 0:31 | S. Keltner made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him | +7% OKST | OKST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 11:33 | Face Mask on Oregon, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +14% OKST | OKST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:00 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% OKST | ORE: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 7:33 | Oklahoma State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% ORE | OKST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 6:53 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% OKST | ORE: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 6:48 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% OKST | ORE: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 35% · Oklahoma State 65%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma State by 8
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Oklahoma State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma State by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 4% · Oklahoma State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Oregon · 
Oklahoma State
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner