Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
East Tennessee State at North Carolina, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
North Carolina beat East Tennessee State 35–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff North Carolina was a 99% favorite.
Final
 East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 3 |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 North Carolina about even · 0 East Tennessee State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Tennessee State wins 0, North Carolina wins 10.
- 1 ETSU 7 UNC 15
- 2 ETSU 10 UNC 28
- 3 ETSU 17 UNC 38
- 4 ETSU 7 UNC 32
- 5 ETSU 0 UNC 28
- 6 ETSU 0 UNC 31
- 7 ETSU 3 UNC 37
- 8 ETSU 0 UNC 38
- 9 ETSU 0 UNC 42
- 10 ETSU 3 UNC 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Tennessee State wins 0% of them, North Carolina 100%. The line is what actually happened: North Carolina by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Tennessee State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| East Tennessee State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| East Tennessee State by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| North Carolina by 17+ | 94.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Johnson, 49 yds missed · 54% expected
- A. Burrell, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
- E. Johnson, 41 yds made · 68% expected
Penalties: East Tennessee State 6 for 65 yards, North Carolina 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:40 | Holding on East Tennessee State, 10 yards | 0% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | False Start on East Tennessee State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNC +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:06 | False Start on North Carolina, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ETSU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | Personal Foul on East Tennessee State, 15 yards | 0% UNC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:34 | Holding on East Tennessee State, 10 yards | 0% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:32 | Face Mask on East Tennessee State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UNC +2.2 pts |
| Q2 7:04 | False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ETSU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 11:16 | Face Mask on North Carolina, 15 yards | 0% ETSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 10 yards | 0% ETSU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:24 | Holding on East Tennessee State, 10 yards | 0% UNC +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:25 | Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ETSU +1.2 pts |
When it happened
North Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:17 | North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% ETSU | UNC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:50 | East Tennessee State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +0% ETSU | ETSU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 8:23 | East Tennessee State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% ETSU | ETSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:56 | East Tennessee State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +0% ETSU | ETSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:57 | East Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +0% UNC | ETSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 12:13 | Personal Foul on East Tennessee State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UNC | UNC: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 10:32 | Face Mask on East Tennessee State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% UNC | UNC: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 8:11 | E. Johnson missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 3 of 8 from 45+ before | +0% UNC | ETSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Tennessee State 0% · North Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- North Carolina by 32
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for North Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Carolina by 28.2
- Replay with same day's form
- East Tennessee State 0% · North Carolina 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
East Tennessee State · 
North Carolina
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Virginia UVA 59–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Western Carolina at Cincinnati CIN 62–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Wofford at Kent State KENT 36–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Villanova at Louisville LOU 59–13 · replay 100% for the winner