luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Weber State at Colorado, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Colorado beat Weber State 52–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Colorado wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Colorado was a 99% favorite.

Final

Weber State Wildcats 21
Colorado Buffaloes 52

September 12, 2026 · Folsom Field · Closing line: Colorado −38.5

Luck index +3 Colorado about even · −3 Weber State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Weber State wins 0, Colorado wins 10.

  1. 1 WEB 34 COLO 38
  2. 2 WEB 20 COLO 31
  3. 3 WEB 17 COLO 34
  4. 4 WEB 24 COLO 45
  5. 5 WEB 3 COLO 27
  6. 6 WEB 14 COLO 41
  7. 7 WEB 16 COLO 49
  8. 8 WEB 14 COLO 51
  9. 9 WEB 14 COLO 56
  10. 10 WEB 3 COLO 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Weber State wins 3% of them, Colorado 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Weber State by 17+0.2%
Weber State by 9–160.7%
Weber State by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Colorado by 1–86.0%
Colorado by 9–169.0%
Colorado by 17+81.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to Weber State: the final margin was Colorado by 31, without the luck Colorado by 33.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Dellenbach, 57 yds missed · 42% expected
  • E. Arnold, 52 yds made · 50% expected
  • E. Arnold, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Weber State 7 for 65 yards, Colorado 13 for 107 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:49 False Start on Weber State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WEB +1.2 pts
Q1 13:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 15 yards 0% WEB +1.5 pts
Q1 4:52 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WEB +0.7 pts
Q1 2:58 Holding on Weber State, 10 yards 0% COLO +0.7 pts
Q1 0:42 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards 0% WEB +2.2 pts
Q2 12:11 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 10 yards 0% WEB +0.6 pts
Q2 8:57 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WEB +0.7 pts
Q2 2:28 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WEB +0.3 pts
Q3 14:56 Holding on Colorado, 7 yards 0% WEB +0.4 pts
Q3 9:31 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WEB +1.7 pts
Q3 6:50 Roughing the Passer on Colorado, 15 yards 0% WEB +1.6 pts
Q3 6:44 Illegal Substitution on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WEB +0.9 pts
Q3 6:10 False Start on Weber State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +1.0 pts
Q3 3:54 Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WEB +0.6 pts
Q3 3:42 Holding on Weber State, 10 yards 0% COLO +0.6 pts
Q4 7:33 Personal Foul on Weber State, 15 yards 0% COLO +1.6 pts
Q4 2:44 Holding on Weber State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% COLO +1.5 pts
Q4 2:44 Holding on Weber State, 10 yards 0% COLO +0.6 pts
Q4 2:24 Offside on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% WEB +2.3 pts
Q4 0:35 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WEB +6.9 pts

When it happened

Colorado’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado was ahead in it, below while Weber State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:42 Weber State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% COLO WEB: Punt
2 Q1 13:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% WEB WEB: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 12:11 Weber State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +0% COLO WEB: Punt
4 Q1 7:52 Weber State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +0% WEB WEB: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:58 Holding on Weber State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% COLO COLO: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:52 Colorado converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% COLO COLO: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:25 Colorado fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% COLO COLO: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:44 E. Arnold missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ beforeHolding on Weber State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsHolding on Weber State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% COLO COLO: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Weber State 0% · Colorado 100%

Final margin
Colorado by 31
Luck in points
2.2 for Weber State
Luck-adjusted margin
Colorado by 33.2
Replay with same day's form
Weber State 3% · Colorado 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Weber State · Colorado

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