Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Northern Colorado at Wyoming, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Wyoming beat Northern Colorado 21–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Wyoming wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Wyoming won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Northern Colorado it would win 91% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%. The numbers
Before kickoff Wyoming was a 94% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:50 left): Wyoming converted 3rd & 12, worth 14 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 Northern Colorado Bears | 13 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Wyoming lucky · −58 Northern Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Colorado wins 6, Wyoming wins 4.
- 1 UNCO 34 WYO 7
- 2 UNCO 26 WYO 7
- 3 UNCO 23 WYO 10
- 4 UNCO 16 WYO 7
- 5 UNCO 13 WYO 7
- 6 UNCO 16 WYO 14
- 7 UNCO 7 WYO 10
- 8 UNCO 10 WYO 17
- 9 UNCO 13 WYO 27
- 10 UNCO 14 WYO 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Wyoming won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Northern Colorado it would win 91% of the time; with this day’s form, 42%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
49 points apart for Wyoming: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Colorado offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.01 | better by 0.04 |
| Northern Colorado defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.03 | worse by 0.17 |
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | −0.01 | better by 0.21 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.05 | better by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Colorado wins 58% of them, Wyoming 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wyoming by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Colorado by 17+ | 18.1% |
| Northern Colorado by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Northern Colorado by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 10.6% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 10.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Richardson, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- L. Richardson, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Northern Colorado 8 for 61 yards, Wyoming 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:16 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UNCO +2.2 pts |
| Q1 10:16 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNCO +0.4 pts |
| Q1 2:59 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wyoming, 15 yards | +1% UNCO +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNCO +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:59 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNCO +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | Holding on Northern Colorado, 9 yards | +2% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | Personal Foul on Northern Colorado, 8 yards | 0% WYO 0.0 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | Personal Foul on Northern Colorado, 4 yards | +3% WYO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Northern Colorado, 15 yards | +3% WYO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Delay of Game on Northern Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNCO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | False Start on Northern Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | Delay of Game on Northern Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 10:50 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% UNCO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:44 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards | +6% UNCO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:44 | Holding on Northern Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% WYO +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 13:40 | Northern Colorado converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedWyoming fumbled and Northern Colorado recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% UNCO | UNCO: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 15:00 | Northern Colorado converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedNorthern Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% UNCO | UNCO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:59 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedWyoming fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50L. Richardson made a 35-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for himFalse Start on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 3:32 | Holding on Northern Colorado, 9 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Northern Colorado, 8 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Northern Colorado, 4 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Northern Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% WYO | WYO: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 15:00 | Northern Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedDelay of Game on Northern Colorado, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% WYO | UNCO: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:50 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on Wyoming, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:44 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Northern Colorado, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% WYO | UNCO: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:44 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedNorthern Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +5% WYO | WYO: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Colorado 8% · Wyoming 92%
- Final margin
- Wyoming by 8
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for Northern Colorado
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wyoming by 8.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Colorado 58% · Wyoming 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Northern Colorado · 
Wyoming
More from Week 2 2026
- Illinois State at Northern Illinois ILST 28–24 · replay 17% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Air Force NDSU 38–32 · replay 19% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Hawai'i HAW 29–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Montana State at Nevada MTST 20–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- Cal Poly at San José State SJSU 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Southern Utah at Colorado State CSU 58–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Weber State at Colorado COLO 52–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- UNLV at North Texas UNT 44–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP 51–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- UC Davis at SMU SMU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico UNM 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner