luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

North Dakota State at Air Force, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

North Dakota State beat Air Force 38–32, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Air Force wins 8 of 10.

North Dakota State won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Air Force it would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers

Before kickoff North Dakota State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:48 left): Return touchdown by Air Force, worth 12 points of win probability to Air Force.

Final

North Dakota State Bison 38
Air Force Falcons 32

September 12, 2026 · Falcon Stadium · Closing line: North Dakota State −1.5

Luck index +81 North Dakota State very lucky · −81 Air Force

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Dakota State wins 2, Air Force wins 8.

  1. 1 NDSU 24 AF 14
  2. 2 NDSU 17 AF 14
  3. 3 NDSU 21 AF 24
  4. 4 NDSU 24 AF 30
  5. 5 NDSU 17 AF 27
  6. 6 NDSU 21 AF 34
  7. 7 NDSU 10 AF 27
  8. 8 NDSU 10 AF 31
  9. 9 NDSU 28 AF 55
  10. 10 NDSU 16 AF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

North Dakota State won on an off day

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Air Force it would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.

38 points apart for North Dakota State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
North Dakota State offenseEPA per play gained +0.47 +0.11 better by 0.36
North Dakota State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.01 worse by 0.13
Air Force offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.11 better by 0.03
Air Force defenseEPA per play allowed +0.47 +0.19 worse by 0.28

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Dakota State wins 19% of them, Air Force 81%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Dakota State by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Dakota State by 17+2.0%
North Dakota State by 9–165.1%
North Dakota State by 1–89.5%
Level after regulation2.7%
Air Force by 1–825.8%
Air Force by 9–1620.0%
Air Force by 17+34.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to North Dakota State: the final margin was North Dakota State by 6, without the luck North Dakota State by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Cremascoli, 28 yds missed · 89% expected
  • D. Klein, 56 yds made · 46% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Dakota State 5 for 45 yards, Air Force 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:05 Targeting on Air Force, 15 yards +4% NDSU +2.2 pts
Q1 12:23 False Start on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AF +0.6 pts
Q1 2:50 False Start on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% AF +0.5 pts
Q2 10:48 Illegal Formation on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% AF +0.3 pts
Q2 8:41 False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NDSU +1.0 pts
Q3 13:54 Chop Block on Air Force, 15 yards +2% NDSU +1.1 pts
Q4 11:39 Holding on Air Force, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% NDSU +6.1 pts
Q4 6:53 Roughing the Passer on North Dakota State, 15 yards +1% AF +4.1 pts
Q4 1:20 Targeting on North Dakota State, 15 yards 0% AF +1.6 pts

When it happened

Air Force’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Air Force was ahead in it, below while North Dakota State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 Targeting on Air Force, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% NDSU NDSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:11 North Dakota State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% NDSU NDSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:04 North Dakota State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% NDSU NDSU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:55 North Dakota State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +3% NDSU NDSU: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:14 Air Force converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% AF AF: Turnover
6 Q2 5:20 North Dakota State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +4% NDSU NDSU: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:48 Air Force missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeReturn touchdown by Air ForceSpecial teams +12% AF AF: End of half
8 Q2 0:37 North Dakota State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% NDSU NDSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Dakota State 57% · Air Force 43%

Final margin
North Dakota State by 6
Luck in points
5.1 for North Dakota State
Luck-adjusted margin
North Dakota State by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
North Dakota State 19% · Air Force 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · North Dakota State · Air Force

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