luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Cal Poly at San José State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

San José State beat Cal Poly 30–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Cal Poly had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Cal Poly.

Before kickoff San José State was a 92% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:31 left): Cal Poly converted 3rd & 10, worth 8 points of win probability to Cal Poly.

Final

Cal Poly Mustangs 20
San José State Spartans 30

September 12, 2026 · CEFCU Stadium · Closing line: San José State −21.5

Luck index +23 San José State about even · −23 Cal Poly

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cal Poly wins 2, San José State wins 8.

  1. 1 CP 23 SJSU 10
  2. 2 CP 27 SJSU 24
  3. 3 CP 21 SJSU 23
  4. 4 CP 30 SJSU 34
  5. 5 CP 13 SJSU 20
  6. 6 CP 13 SJSU 24
  7. 7 CP 17 SJSU 31
  8. 8 CP 20 SJSU 38
  9. 9 CP 17 SJSU 42
  10. 10 CP 0 SJSU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cal Poly wins 23% of them, San José State 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San José State by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cal Poly by 17+4.1%
Cal Poly by 9–166.7%
Cal Poly by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation4.1%
San José State by 1–821.1%
San José State by 9–1618.7%
San José State by 17+33.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to Cal Poly: the final margin was San José State by 10, without the luck San José State by 21.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Sinatra, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
  • T. Sinatra, 44 yds made · 65% expected
  • T. Sinatra, 32 yds made · 85% expected
  • T. Sinatra, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
  • T. Sinatra, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cal Poly 1 for 10 yards, San José State 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:02 Holding on Cal Poly, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SJSU +3.3 pts
Q2 6:22 Holding on San José State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CP +2.2 pts
Q3 7:14 Personal Foul on San José State, 15 yards +2% CP +1.6 pts
Q3 3:43 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San José State, 15 yards +2% CP +1.6 pts
Q3 0:53 Holding on San José State, 10 yards +2% CP +0.8 pts
Q4 0:29 Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CP +0.4 pts

When it happened

San José State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while San José State was ahead in it, below while Cal Poly was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 Holding on Cal Poly, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% SJSU SJSU: Punt
2 Q1 1:57 Cal Poly converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% CP CP: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:56 T. Sinatra missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +5% CP SJSU: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:13 Cal Poly was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% SJSU CP: Punt
5 Q3 2:14 Cal Poly converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% CP CP: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:02 San José State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% CP SJSU: Field goal
7 Q4 11:31 Cal Poly converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% CP CP: Turnover
8 Q4 4:50 Cal Poly converted 4th & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +3% CP CP: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cal Poly 0% · San José State 100%

Final margin
San José State by 10
Luck in points
11.6 for Cal Poly
Luck-adjusted margin
San José State by 21.6
Replay with same day's form
Cal Poly 23% · San José State 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Cal Poly · San José State

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