Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Illinois State at Northern Illinois, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Illinois State beat Northern Illinois 28–24, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Northern Illinois wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Illinois State.
Illinois State won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Northern Illinois it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff Illinois State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): Pass Interference on Illinois State, 15 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Northern Illinois.
Final
 Illinois State Redbirds | 28 |
|---|---|
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Illinois State very lucky · −83 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Illinois State wins 2, Northern Illinois wins 8.
- 1 ILST 21 NIU 10
- 2 ILST 10 NIU 7
- 3 ILST 21 NIU 24
- 4 ILST 19 NIU 24
- 5 ILST 12 NIU 21
- 6 ILST 10 NIU 21
- 7 ILST 9 NIU 24
- 8 ILST 0 NIU 19
- 9 ILST 10 NIU 33
- 10 ILST 7 NIU 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Illinois State won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Northern Illinois it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for Illinois State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.12 | worse by 0.01 |
| Illinois State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.03 | better by 0.01 |
| Northern Illinois offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | −0.02 | better by 0.04 |
| Northern Illinois defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.06 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Illinois State wins 17% of them, Northern Illinois 83%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Illinois State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Illinois State by 17+ | 1.7% |
| Illinois State by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Illinois State by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 22.5% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 35.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Illinois State 6 for 77 yards, Northern Illinois 8 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:55 | Illegal Snap on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 10:25 | Holding on Illinois State, 10 yards | +1% NIU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:13 | Offside on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILST +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:43 | Holding on Illinois State, 10 yards | +2% NIU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 4:02 | Kick Catch Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +1% ILST +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:55 | Personal Foul on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +2% ILST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 14:15 | Personal Foul on Illinois State, 15 yards | +1% NIU +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:03 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards | +1% ILST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | Roughing the Passer on Illinois State, 15 yards | +3% NIU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 11:49 | Roughing the Passer on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +5% ILST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards | +6% ILST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:41 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:05 | Pass Interference on Illinois State, 15 yards | +8% NIU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Personal Foul on Illinois State, 12 yards | +1% NIU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Northern Illinois’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:10 | Illinois State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +5% ILST | ILST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 8:34 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +9% ILST | NIU: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 14:59 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +5% ILST | NIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:49 | Roughing the Passer on Northern Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% ILST | ILST: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 9:54 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% ILST | ILST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:02 | Illinois State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +11% ILST | ILST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:18 | Illinois State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +12% ILST | ILST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:05 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedPass Interference on Illinois State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% NIU | NIU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Illinois State 26% · Northern Illinois 74%
- Final margin
- Illinois State by 4
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Illinois State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Northern Illinois by 3.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Illinois State 17% · Northern Illinois 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Illinois State · 
Northern Illinois
More from Week 2 2026
- North Dakota State at Air Force NDSU 38–32 · replay 19% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Wyoming WYO 21–13 · replay 42% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Hawai'i HAW 29–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Montana State at Nevada MTST 20–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- Cal Poly at San José State SJSU 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- UNLV at North Texas UNT 44–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP 51–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico UNM 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Ohio OHIO 29–27 · replay 27% for the winner