Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Southern Utah at Colorado State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Colorado State beat Southern Utah 58–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Colorado State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Colorado State was a 90% favorite.
Final
 Southern Utah Thunderbirds | 24 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Colorado State about even · −4 Southern Utah
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern Utah wins 0, Colorado State wins 10.
- 1 SUU 34 CSU 38
- 2 SUU 28 CSU 38
- 3 SUU 24 CSU 38
- 4 SUU 24 CSU 42
- 5 SUU 28 CSU 50
- 6 SUU 24 CSU 52
- 7 SUU 14 CSU 45
- 8 SUU 17 CSU 54
- 9 SUU 21 CSU 65
- 10 SUU 10 CSU 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern Utah wins 4% of them, Colorado State 96%. The line is what actually happened: Colorado State by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern Utah by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Southern Utah by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Southern Utah by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 6.1% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 10.7% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 79.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Nguma, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- K. Nguma, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- K. Nguma, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Rogers, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Penalties: Southern Utah 5 for 42 yards, Colorado State 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:36 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SUU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Holding on Southern Utah, 10 yards | 0% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:47 | Pass Interference on Southern Utah, 15 yards | 0% CSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:15 | False Start on Southern Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 12:26 | Holding on Southern Utah, 10 yards | 0% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:27 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | 0% SUU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Offside on Southern Utah, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:27 | Southern Utah converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% SUU | SUU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:10 | Southern Utah converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% CSU | SUU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:52 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% CSU | CSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:24 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +2% CSU | CSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 4:54 | K. Nguma made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +1% CSU | CSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 8:36 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% SUU | SUU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:51 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% CSU | CSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 5:40 | Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% SUU | CSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern Utah 0% · Colorado State 100%
- Final margin
- Colorado State by 34
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for Colorado State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colorado State by 29.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern Utah 4% · Colorado State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Southern Utah · 
Colorado State
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Wyoming WYO 21–13 · replay 42% for the winner
- Montana State at Nevada MTST 20–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Cal Poly at San José State SJSU 30–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Weber State at Colorado COLO 52–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Fresno State FRES 49–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Washington State at Kansas State KSU 34–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- UC Davis at SMU SMU 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner