Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Washington State at Kansas State, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat Washington State 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas State was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Washington State Cougars | 7 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Kansas State about even · 0 Washington State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington State wins 0, Kansas State wins 10.
- 1 WSU 10 KSU 27
- 2 WSU 10 KSU 35
- 3 WSU 17 KSU 46
- 4 WSU 0 KSU 34
- 5 WSU 0 KSU 38
- 6 WSU 9 KSU 49
- 7 WSU 7 KSU 51
- 8 WSU 0 KSU 48
- 9 WSU 0 KSU 52
- 10 WSU 0 KSU 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington State wins 0% of them, Kansas State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 97.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rodriguez, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Stevens, 37 yds blocked · 78% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 31 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Washington State 3 for 25 yards, Kansas State 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:34 | Roughing the Passer on Kansas State, 15 yards | +2% WSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Pass Interference on Washington State, 10 yards | 0% WSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:31 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% KSU +2.5 pts |
| Q4 7:17 | Illegal Block on Kansas State, 10 yards | 0% WSU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:33 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +2% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:34 | Roughing the Passer on Kansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% WSU | WSU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:35 | J. Stevens had a 37-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him | +3% KSU | WSU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 14:50 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% KSU | KSU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 13:48 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% KSU | KSU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 9:27 | Washington State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +5% KSU | WSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:23 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 4:17 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington State 24% · Kansas State 76%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 27
- Luck in points
- 22.8 for Kansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington State 0% · Kansas State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Washington State · 
Kansas State
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Southern Utah at Colorado State CSU 58–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner