Week 2 2026 · September 10, 2026
Florida A&M at Miami, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Florida A&M 77–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Florida A&M Rattlers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 77 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 Florida A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida A&M wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 FAMU 7 MIA 70
- 2 FAMU 0 MIA 70
- 3 FAMU 0 MIA 73
- 4 FAMU 3 MIA 79
- 5 FAMU 0 MIA 77
- 6 FAMU 0 MIA 83
- 7 FAMU 0 MIA 84
- 8 FAMU 0 MIA 84
- 9 FAMU 0 MIA 90
- 10 FAMU 0 MIA 91
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida A&M wins 0% of them, Miami 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 70.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida A&M by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Florida A&M by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Florida A&M by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Miami by 17+ | 97.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Florida A&M 5 for 39 yards, Miami 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:51 | False Start on Florida A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.2 pts |
| Q2 8:58 | False Start on Florida A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:46 | Illegal Use of Hands on Florida A&M, 9 yards | 0% MIA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | False Start on Florida A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:03 | Face Mask on Florida A&M, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAMU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:08 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:53 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:36 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:37 | Florida A&M converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:36 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:11 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:36 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 3:26 | Florida A&M was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% MIA | FAMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida A&M 0% · Miami 100%
- Final margin
- Miami by 70
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 69.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida A&M 0% · Miami 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Florida A&M · 
Miami
More from Week 2 2026
- California at Syracuse CAL 21–18 · replay 19% for the winner
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Clemson CLEM 22–7 · replay 64% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Virginia Tech VT 44–21 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Virginia UVA 59–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- East Tennessee State at North Carolina UNC 35–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas Southern at UTEP UTEP 51–10 · replay 100% for the winner