Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Southern at Houston, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Southern 77–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Southern Jaguars | 6 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 77 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Houston about even · 0 Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern wins 0, Houston wins 10.
- 1 SOU 27 HOU 70
- 2 SOU 14 HOU 69
- 3 SOU 14 HOU 72
- 4 SOU 10 HOU 73
- 5 SOU 13 HOU 77
- 6 SOU 0 HOU 69
- 7 SOU 14 HOU 84
- 8 SOU 7 HOU 80
- 9 SOU 7 HOU 84
- 10 SOU 0 HOU 78
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern wins 0% of them, Houston 100%. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 71.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Southern by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Southern by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Houston by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Southern 6 for 44 yards, Houston 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:59 | Holding on Southern, 9 yards | 0% HOU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:08 | Offside on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:21 | Pass Interference on Southern, 15 yards | 0% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:27 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | 0% SOU +3.3 pts |
| Q2 11:29 | Offside on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 11:20 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:22 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SOU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Delay of Game on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | False Start on Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:28 | Southern was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +0% HOU | SOU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:49 | Houston converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +0% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:59 | Houston converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:40 | Houston converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +0% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:20 | Southern was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% HOU | SOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:48 | Houston converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:13 | Southern was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% HOU | SOU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 4:38 | Southern missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% HOU | SOU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern 0% · Houston 100%
- Final margin
- Houston by 71
- Luck in points
- 14.8 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 56.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern 0% · Houston 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Southern · 
Houston
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Texas A&M TA&M 48–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Alabama State at Troy TROY 34–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Weber State at Colorado COLO 52–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Western Carolina at Cincinnati CIN 62–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Arkansas at Utah UTAH 43–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- UT Martin at West Virginia WVU 52–7 · replay 99% for the winner