Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Sacred Heart at Massachusetts, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Massachusetts beat Sacred Heart 37–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Massachusetts wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Massachusetts was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Sacred Heart Pioneers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Massachusetts about even · 0 Sacred Heart
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sacred Heart wins 0, Massachusetts wins 10.
- 1 SHU 3 MASS 12
- 2 SHU 0 MASS 17
- 3 SHU 10 MASS 31
- 4 SHU 14 MASS 38
- 5 SHU 0 MASS 27
- 6 SHU 10 MASS 41
- 7 SHU 3 MASS 37
- 8 SHU 0 MASS 37
- 9 SHU 3 MASS 45
- 10 SHU 0 MASS 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sacred Heart wins 0% of them, Massachusetts 100%. The line is what actually happened: Massachusetts by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sacred Heart by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Sacred Heart by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Sacred Heart by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 93.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- R. Bocklet, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- D. Morris, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Sacred Heart 7 for 45 yards, Massachusetts 7 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:56 | Offside on Sacred Heart, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q1 11:30 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% SHU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 9:58 | False Start on Massachusetts, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% SHU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:36 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | 0% SHU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:07 | Offside on Sacred Heart, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:13 | Illegal Substitution on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:34 | Holding on Sacred Heart, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:11 | Illegal Snap on Sacred Heart, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:29 | Offside on Sacred Heart, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 4:49 | Ineligible Downfield on Massachusetts, 5 yards | 0% SHU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:20 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | 0% SHU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 0:35 | Holding on Sacred Heart, 10 yards | 0% MASS +2.5 pts |
| Q4 5:01 | False Start on Sacred Heart, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:56 | Offside on Sacred Heart, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:03 | Sacred Heart was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% MASS | SHU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:30 | Personal Foul on Massachusetts, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% SHU | SHU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:54 | Sacred Heart fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% SHU | SHU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:34 | Holding on Sacred Heart, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:53 | Sacred Heart was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% MASS | SHU: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 1:52 | Sacred Heart was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% MASS | SHU: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 0:21 | Massachusetts missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% SHU | MASS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sacred Heart 0% · Massachusetts 100%
- Final margin
- Massachusetts by 27
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Sacred Heart
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Massachusetts by 30.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Sacred Heart 0% · Massachusetts 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Sacred Heart · 
Massachusetts
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