Western Kentucky at Georgia, Week 2 2026: who deserved it?

Final

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	20
Georgia Bulldogs	70

September 12, 2026 · Sanford Stadium · Closing line: Georgia −40.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +1 Georgia about even · −1 Western Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 0, Georgia wins 10.

1 WKU 23 UGA 31
2 WKU 16 UGA 30
3 WKU 10 UGA 29
4 WKU 24 UGA 47
5 WKU 0 UGA 27
6 WKU 0 UGA 31
7 WKU 16 UGA 51
8 WKU 6 UGA 45
9 WKU 3 UGA 47
10 WKU 6 UGA 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Western Kentucky wins 1% of them, Georgia 99%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 50.

Actual: Georgia by 50 494235282114707142128354249 ← Western Kentucky win by Georgia win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Western Kentucky by 17+	0.1%
Western Kentucky by 9–16	0.1%
Western Kentucky by 1–8	0.5%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Georgia by 1–8	2.3%
Georgia by 9–16	5.1%
Georgia by 17+	92.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to Georgia: the final margin was Georgia by 50, without the luck Georgia by 49.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Western Kentucky 5 for 35 yards, Georgia 7 for 66 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 14:16	False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% WKU +0.5 pts
Q1 12:29	Kick Catch Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards	0% UGA +0.9 pts
Q2 12:59	Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards	0% WKU +1.9 pts
Q2 12:21	False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% UGA +0.6 pts
Q2 11:39	False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% UGA +0.3 pts
Q2 8:24	Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia, 15 yards	0% WKU +0.9 pts
Q2 2:33	Holding on Georgia, 6 yards, wiping out the play	0% UGA +1.4 pts
Q2 2:06	Face Mask on Georgia, 5 yards	0% WKU +0.5 pts
Q4 13:22	False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% UGA +0.4 pts
Q4 5:56	Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards	0% WKU +1.1 pts
Q4 2:32	False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% UGA +0.2 pts
Q4 1:32	Illegal Substitution on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% UGA +0.4 pts

When it happened

Georgia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Georgia 50% Western Kentucky Q1Q2Q3Q4 134578

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia was ahead in it, below while Western Kentucky was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 12:54	Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+0% WKU	WKU: Punt
2	Q1 12:29	Kick Catch Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+0% UGA	UGA: Touchdown
3	Q1 5:32	Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected	+0% WKU	WKU: Punt
4	Q1 3:26	Western Kentucky converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected	+0% WKU	WKU: Punt
5	Q2 2:33	Holding on Georgia, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+0% UGA	WKU: Touchdown
6	Q2 1:14	Western Kentucky missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time	+0% UGA	WKU: Punt
7	Q3 1:52	Georgia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+0% UGA	UGA: Punt
8	Q4 1:32	Illegal Substitution on Georgia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags	+0% UGA	WKU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Western Kentucky 0% · Georgia 100%

Final margin: Georgia by 50
Luck in points: 0.4 for Georgia
Luck-adjusted margin: Georgia by 49.6
Replay with same day's form: Western Kentucky 1% · Georgia 99% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 5Q1 12:54
Kick Catch Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsQ1 12:29
Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 10Q1 5:32
Western Kentucky converted 4th & 3Q1 3:26
Holding on Georgia, 6 yards, wiping out the playQ2 2:33
Western Kentucky missed an extra pointQ2 1:14
Georgia fumbled and recovered itQ3 1:52
Illegal Substitution on Georgia, 5 yardsQ4 1:32

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Western Kentucky · Georgia

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