luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14

Georgia Tech vs Clemson prediction and pick

Our Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers pick: Clemson by 6.7, 65% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Sat, Nov 14, time to be announced · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)

Clemson by 6.7 · 65% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Georgia Tech win34.6%
Clemson win65.4%
Middle 50%: Georgia Tech by 5 to Clemson by 1850%
Middle 90%: Georgia Tech by 21 to Clemson by 3590%
Middle 95%: Georgia Tech by 27 to Clemson by 4095%
Exactly Clemson by 36.4%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 35.6%
Exactly Clemson by 75.3%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 73.8%
Exactly Clemson by 143.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Georgia Tech by 5 and Clemson by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between Georgia Tech by 21 and Clemson by 35.
P95
19 in 20 between Georgia Tech by 27 and Clemson by 40.
Where the forecast comes from
This season, against its opponentsClemson+3.7
Home fieldClemson+3.1
Last seasonGeorgia Tech+0.2

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Georgia Tech 1–3 2.3 −1.9
Clemson 3–1 2.0 +0.9

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Georgia Tech vs Clemson: questions and answers

Who will win Georgia Tech vs Clemson?

Our forecast picks Clemson, with 65% to win; Georgia Tech win 35% of the time.

What’s the spread for Georgia Tech vs Clemson?

Our spread: Clemson −6.7. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Georgia Tech vs Clemson?

Saturday, November 14, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC).