Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Robert Morris at West Virginia, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
West Virginia beat Robert Morris 45–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, West Virginia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff West Virginia was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Robert Morris Colonials | 3 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 West Virginia about even · 0 Robert Morris
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Robert Morris wins 0, West Virginia wins 10.
- 1 RMU 6 WVU 20
- 2 RMU 13 WVU 38
- 3 RMU 0 WVU 30
- 4 RMU 3 WVU 38
- 5 RMU 0 WVU 38
- 6 RMU 10 WVU 51
- 7 RMU 3 WVU 47
- 8 RMU 0 WVU 48
- 9 RMU 0 WVU 54
- 10 RMU 3 WVU 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Robert Morris wins 0% of them, West Virginia 100%. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Robert Morris by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Robert Morris by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 97.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Hensley, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Jenkins, 36 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Robert Morris 4 for 24 yards, West Virginia 7 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:37 | Offside on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:35 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:54 | False Start on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:15 | Ineligible Downfield on West Virginia, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RMU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:15 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:45 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards | 0% RMU +2.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:47 | Holding on Robert Morris, 9 yards | 0% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:07 | Holding on West Virginia, 9 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:16 | False Start on Robert Morris, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:14 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RMU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:10 | Robert Morris converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedRobert Morris converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% RMU | RMU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:44 | Robert Morris converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedK. Hensley made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +0% RMU | RMU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 9:17 | Robert Morris fumbled and West Virginia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% WVU | RMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 2:54 | Robert Morris was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedWest Virginia fumbled and Robert Morris recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on Robert Morris, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% RMU | RMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 14:54 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% RMU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:18 | Robert Morris was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% RMU | RMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:15 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedIneligible Downfield on West Virginia, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on West Virginia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% RMU | WVU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 8:45 | Holding on West Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% RMU | RMU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Robert Morris 0% · West Virginia 100%
- Final margin
- West Virginia by 42
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for West Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Virginia by 41.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Robert Morris 0% · West Virginia 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Robert Morris · 
West Virginia
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa State vs Kansas State ISU 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at UCF UCF 17–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Colorado GT 27–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Arizona ARIZ 40–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- North Dakota at Kansas State KSU 38–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona State ASU 38–19 · replay 98% for the winner
- TCU at North Carolina TCU 48–14 · replay 99% for the winner