luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Duquesne at Pittsburgh, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Pittsburgh beat Duquesne 61–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 99% favorite.

Final

Duquesne Dukes 9
Pittsburgh Panthers 61

August 30, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Pittsburgh −39.5

Luck index 0 Pittsburgh about even · 0 Duquesne

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Duquesne wins 0, Pittsburgh wins 10.

  1. 1 DUQ 14 PITT 24
  2. 2 DUQ 10 PITT 30
  3. 3 DUQ 21 PITT 45
  4. 4 DUQ 6 PITT 34
  5. 5 DUQ 13 PITT 45
  6. 6 DUQ 10 PITT 46
  7. 7 DUQ 13 PITT 52
  8. 8 DUQ 0 PITT 44
  9. 9 DUQ 13 PITT 62
  10. 10 DUQ 10 PITT 67

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Duquesne wins 0% of them, Pittsburgh 100%. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 52.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Duquesne by 17+0.0%
Duquesne by 9–160.1%
Duquesne by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Pittsburgh by 1–80.6%
Pittsburgh by 9–162.2%
Pittsburgh by 17+96.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.3 points to Pittsburgh: the final margin was Pittsburgh by 52, without the luck Pittsburgh by 40.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Marcinko, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Duquesne 10 for 73 yards, Pittsburgh 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 Delay of Game on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.8 pts
Q1 3:55 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DUQ +0.6 pts
Q2 10:33 False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +1.1 pts
Q2 10:11 Pass Interference on Duquesne, 13 yards 0% PITT +1.0 pts
Q2 7:59 Illegal Substitution on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +1.1 pts
Q2 7:13 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yards 0% PITT +1.4 pts
Q3 9:10 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yards 0% PITT +1.6 pts
Q3 7:58 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yards 0% PITT +1.6 pts
Q3 3:14 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 15 yards 0% DUQ +0.7 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.7 pts
Q4 14:26 Delay of Game on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +0.9 pts
Q4 11:15 Delay of Game on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PITT +1.0 pts

When it happened

Pittsburgh’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Pittsburgh was ahead in it, below while Duquesne was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 Return touchdown by PittsburghSpecial teams +0% PITT PITT: Punt
2 Q1 2:47 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedPittsburgh converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:33 False Start on Duquesne, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:28 Duquesne missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% PITT DUQ: Punt
5 Q2 9:24 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedPittsburgh missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% DUQ PITT: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:13 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:10 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:58 Holding on Duquesne, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% PITT PITT: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Duquesne 0% · Pittsburgh 100%

Final margin
Pittsburgh by 52
Luck in points
11.3 for Pittsburgh
Luck-adjusted margin
Pittsburgh by 40.7
Replay with same day's form
Duquesne 0% · Pittsburgh 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Duquesne · Pittsburgh

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