Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
VMI at Navy, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Navy beat VMI 52–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Navy wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Navy was a 100% favorite.
Final
 VMI Keydets | 7 |
|---|---|
 Navy Midshipmen | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Navy about even · 0 VMI
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. VMI wins 0, Navy wins 10.
- 1 VMI 28 NAVY 45
- 2 VMI 21 NAVY 48
- 3 VMI 14 NAVY 45
- 4 VMI 10 NAVY 45
- 5 VMI 7 NAVY 47
- 6 VMI 14 NAVY 56
- 7 VMI 17 NAVY 63
- 8 VMI 7 NAVY 56
- 9 VMI 7 NAVY 62
- 10 VMI 0 NAVY 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
VMI wins 0% of them, Navy 100%. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 45.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| VMI by 17+ | 0.0% |
| VMI by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| VMI by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Navy by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Navy by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Navy by 17+ | 96.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: VMI 5 for 35 yards, Navy 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:25 | False Start on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:22 | False Start on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:19 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VMI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:51 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% VMI +2.9 pts |
| Q3 5:33 | Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VMI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:00 | False Start on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:56 | Delay of Game on VMI, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NAVY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:25 | Unnecessary Roughness on VMI, 15 yards | 0% NAVY +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Navy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:35 | VMI converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% VMI | VMI: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:16 | VMI was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +0% NAVY | VMI: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:28 | Navy converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:55 | Navy was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% VMI | NAVY: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:35 | VMI was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% NAVY | VMI: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:51 | Holding on Navy, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% VMI | VMI: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 11:07 | Navy converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% NAVY | NAVY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 7:48 | VMI was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% NAVY | VMI: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
VMI 0% · Navy 100%
- Final margin
- Navy by 45
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for Navy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Navy by 36.6
- Replay with same day's form
- VMI 0% · Navy 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
VMI · 
Navy
More from Week 1 2025
- Tarleton State at Army TAR 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- East Carolina at NC State NCSU 24–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Boise State at South Florida USF 34–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Alabama State at UAB UAB 52–42 · replay 89% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at Tulsa TLSA 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chattanooga at Memphis MEM 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- App State vs Charlotte APP 34–11 · replay 100% for the winner