Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Memphis at East Carolina, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
East Carolina beat Memphis 31–27, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10. Memphis had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Memphis.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:35 left): Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to East Carolina.
Final
 Memphis Tigers | 27 |
|---|---|
 East Carolina Pirates | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 East Carolina lucky · −38 Memphis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Memphis wins 4, East Carolina wins 6.
- 1 MEM 35 ECU 14
- 2 MEM 34 ECU 21
- 3 MEM 20 ECU 13
- 4 MEM 13 ECU 10
- 5 MEM 28 ECU 31
- 6 MEM 21 ECU 27
- 7 MEM 3 ECU 12
- 8 MEM 23 ECU 37
- 9 MEM 20 ECU 42
- 10 MEM 0 ECU 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Memphis wins 38% of them, East Carolina 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Memphis by 17+ | 9.0% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 16.5% |
| East Carolina by 17+ | 24.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Mazzie, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- G. Spetic, 44 yds made · 66% expected
- G. Spetic, 30 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Memphis 5 for 55 yards, East Carolina 6 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:36 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MEM +1.3 pts |
| Q1 5:28 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MEM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:55 | Roughing the Passer on East Carolina, 15 yards | +2% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:16 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MEM +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:22 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yards | +3% MEM +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:11 | Holding on East Carolina, 7 yards | +5% MEM +1.4 pts |
| Q3 3:35 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +21% ECU +5.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Memphis, 15 yards | +4% ECU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ECU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:28 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | +4% ECU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Holding on Memphis, 10 yards | 0% ECU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
East Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:23 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% MEM | MEM: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 3:35 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +21% ECU | ECU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:13 | Memphis converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +6% MEM | MEM: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 15:00 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 353rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Memphis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% ECU | MEM: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:02 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% MEM | ECU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 5:49 | Memphis was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedEast Carolina converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +16% ECU | MEM: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:10 | East Carolina fumbled and Memphis recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% MEM | ECU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:14 | Memphis converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% MEM | MEM: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Memphis 24% · East Carolina 76%
- Final margin
- East Carolina by 4
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Memphis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 4.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Memphis 38% · East Carolina 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Memphis · 
East Carolina
More from Week 12 2025
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Tulane TULN 35–24 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Texas at UAB UNT 53–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- UTSA at Charlotte UTSA 28–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon State at Tulsa TLSA 31–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner