Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
North Texas at UAB, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat UAB 53–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff North Texas was an 87% favorite.
Final
 North Texas Mean Green | 53 |
|---|---|
 UAB Blazers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 North Texas about even · −8 UAB
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Texas wins 9, UAB wins 1.
- 1 UNT 59 UAB 21
- 2 UNT 56 UAB 24
- 3 UNT 58 UAB 31
- 4 UNT 51 UAB 28
- 5 UNT 49 UAB 28
- 6 UNT 41 UAB 24
- 7 UNT 35 UAB 24
- 8 UNT 35 UAB 28
- 9 UNT 48 UAB 44
- 10 UNT 38 UAB 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Texas wins 92% of them, UAB 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Texas by 17+ | 57.3% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| UAB by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Nguma, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- J. Delange, 46 yds made · 63% expected
Penalties: North Texas 2 for 20 yards, UAB 3 for 12 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:54 | Illegal Substitution on UAB, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:05 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:48 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Pass Interference on North Texas, 15 yards | 0% UAB +1.1 pts |
| Q4 13:28 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UAB +1.5 pts |
When it happened
UAB’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:15 | North Texas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +1% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:19 | North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +2% UAB | UNT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:43 | North Texas converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected | +1% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 10:05 | North Texas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 9:54 | Illegal Substitution on UAB, 2 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:40 | UAB fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% UNT | UAB: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 13:55 | UAB converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% UAB | UAB: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 11:41 | UAB was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +0% UNT | UAB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Texas 100% · UAB 0%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 29
- Luck in points
- 2.7 for UAB
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 31.7
- Replay with same day's form
- North Texas 92% · UAB 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
North Texas · 
UAB
More from Week 12 2025
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Memphis at East Carolina ECU 31–27 · replay 62% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Tulane TULN 35–24 · replay 76% for the winner
- UTSA at Charlotte UTSA 28–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon State at Tulsa TLSA 31–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner