Week 11 2025 · November 8, 2025
Syracuse at Miami, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Syracuse 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Syracuse Orange | 10 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Miami about even · −1 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Syracuse wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 SYR 13 MIA 17
- 2 SYR 17 MIA 29
- 3 SYR 0 MIA 17
- 4 SYR 10 MIA 31
- 5 SYR 0 MIA 24
- 6 SYR 10 MIA 37
- 7 SYR 0 MIA 31
- 8 SYR 3 MIA 37
- 9 SYR 0 MIA 40
- 10 SYR 6 MIA 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Syracuse wins 1% of them, Miami 99%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 3.1% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 8.3% |
| Miami by 17+ | 87.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Woody, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Davis, 36 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Syracuse 7 for 50 yards, Miami 5 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:16 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIA +5.2 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | Illegal Motion on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:45 | Personal Foul on Miami, 14 yards | 0% SYR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:33 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +1% SYR +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.1 pts |
| Q3 10:58 | Face Mask on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:41 | Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yards | 0% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:58 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:16 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% SYR +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:16 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:39 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% SYR | MIA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:33 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on Miami, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% SYR | MIA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:33 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +2% SYR | SYR: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:20 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% SYR | SYR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 8:00 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +1% SYR | MIA: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:53 | Holding on Miami, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% SYR | SYR: Turnover |
| 8 | Q2 1:50 | Return touchdown by MiamiSpecial teams | +3% MIA | MIA: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Syracuse 0% · Miami 100%
- Final margin
- Miami by 28
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 27.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Syracuse 1% · Miami 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · 
Syracuse · 
Miami
More from Week 11 2025
- Wake Forest at Virginia WAKE 16–9 · replay 22% for the winner
- Stanford at North Carolina UNC 20–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Duke at UConn CONN 37–34 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Clemson CLEM 24–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- California at Louisville CAL 29–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- SMU at Boston College SMU 45–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Oregon State SHSU 21–17 · replay 2% for the winner
- Air Force at San José State AF 26–16 · replay 5% for the winner
- Texas State at Louisiana UL 42–39 · replay 14% for the winner
- Iowa State at TCU ISU 20–17 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Wisconsin WIS 13–10 · replay 23% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Delaware DEL 25–24 · replay 25% for the winner