Week 1 2026 · August 29, 2026
Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Eastern Michigan beat Sacramento State 28–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Eastern Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Eastern Michigan was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:54 left): Return touchdown by Sacramento State, worth 9 points of win probability to Sacramento State.
Final
 Sacramento State Hornets | 17 |
|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Eastern Michigan about even · −4 Sacramento State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sacramento State wins 0, Eastern Michigan wins 10.
- 1 SAC 17 EMU 21
- 2 SAC 3 EMU 13
- 3 SAC 10 EMU 24
- 4 SAC 0 EMU 17
- 5 SAC 3 EMU 23
- 6 SAC 0 EMU 21
- 7 SAC 16 EMU 41
- 8 SAC 3 EMU 31
- 9 SAC 0 EMU 33
- 10 SAC 0 EMU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sacramento State wins 4% of them, Eastern Michigan 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eastern Michigan by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sacramento State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Sacramento State by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Sacramento State by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 8.7% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 72.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Meadors, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- R. Kessinger, 28 yds missed · 89% expected
Penalties: Sacramento State 11 for 95 yards, Eastern Michigan 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:56 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% EMU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:35 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | +3% EMU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 5:56 | Illegal Formation on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 4:53 | Kick Catch Interference on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | +2% SAC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | Delay of Game on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:15 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | +1% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:43 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | +2% EMU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:15 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SAC +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | Intentional Grounding on Eastern Michigan, 0 yards | 0% SAC 0.0 pts |
| Q4 13:43 | Pass Interference on Sacramento State, 15 yards | 0% EMU +2.2 pts |
| Q4 13:29 | Illegal Motion on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 12:42 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% EMU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 11:01 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | +1% SAC +3.0 pts |
| Q4 11:01 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:58 | Running Into the Kicker on Sacramento State, 5 yards | 0% EMU +2.4 pts |
When it happened
Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:56 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% EMU | SAC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:11 | Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% EMU | SAC: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:36 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% SAC | EMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:35 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 0:51 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:54 | Eastern Michigan fumbled and Sacramento State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Sacramento StateSpecial teams | +9% SAC | EMU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:03 | R. Kessinger missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +2% SAC | EMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 1:13 | Sacramento State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% EMU | SAC: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sacramento State 6% · Eastern Michigan 94%
- Final margin
- Eastern Michigan by 11
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eastern Michigan by 9.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Sacramento State 4% · Eastern Michigan 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Sacramento State · 
Eastern Michigan
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Tarleton State at Bowling Green TAR 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- UAlbany at Buffalo BUF 21–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Central Michigan at New Mexico UNM 38–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State SAC 52–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at South Carolina SC 57–0 · replay 100% for the winner