luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Central Michigan at New Mexico, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

New Mexico beat Central Michigan 38–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff New Mexico was a 77% favorite.

Final

Central Michigan Chippewas 7
New Mexico Lobos 38

September 5, 2026 · University Stadium (NM) · Closing line: New Mexico −11.5

Luck index +1 New Mexico about even · −1 Central Michigan

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 0, New Mexico wins 10.

  1. 1 CMU 14 UNM 21
  2. 2 CMU 3 UNM 16
  3. 3 CMU 7 UNM 24
  4. 4 CMU 3 UNM 24
  5. 5 CMU 7 UNM 31
  6. 6 CMU 7 UNM 33
  7. 7 CMU 3 UNM 31
  8. 8 CMU 10 UNM 41
  9. 9 CMU 0 UNM 35
  10. 10 CMU 0 UNM 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Central Michigan wins 1% of them, New Mexico 99%. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Central Michigan by 17+0.0%
Central Michigan by 9–160.0%
Central Michigan by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
New Mexico by 1–82.7%
New Mexico by 9–168.6%
New Mexico by 17+88.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to New Mexico: the final margin was New Mexico by 31, without the luck New Mexico by 27.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Glasgow, 48 yds made · 58% expected
  • G. Glasgow, 46 yds made · 62% expected
  • G. Glasgow, 50 yds missed · 55% expected
  • G. Glasgow, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Central Michigan 8 for 82 yards, New Mexico 4 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:57 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards +2% UNM +1.3 pts
Q2 9:55 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards +1% UNM +1.9 pts
Q2 9:04 Intentional Grounding on New Mexico, 6 yards 0% CMU +0.4 pts
Q2 5:51 Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 15 yards 0% UNM +0.7 pts
Q2 5:45 Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards 0% CMU +0.9 pts
Q2 4:55 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% UNM +0.8 pts
Q2 2:25 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards 0% UNM +0.5 pts
Q2 1:57 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +1.3 pts
Q3 13:46 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNM +0.8 pts
Q3 8:29 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Central Michigan, 15 yards 0% UNM +1.6 pts
Q3 8:10 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 7 yards 0% UNM +1.2 pts
Q4 11:12 False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% CMU +3.4 pts

When it happened

New Mexico’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while New Mexico was ahead in it, below while Central Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:26 New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +2% CMU UNM: Punt
2 Q1 11:55 Central Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +2% UNM CMU: Punt
3 Q1 10:57 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% UNM UNM: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:58 New Mexico fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% UNM UNM: Touchdown
5 Q1 7:18 New Mexico converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% UNM UNM: Touchdown
6 Q1 4:07 New Mexico converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +1% UNM UNM: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:44 New Mexico converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +2% UNM UNM: Touchdown
8 Q2 12:56 New Mexico converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +1% UNM UNM: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Central Michigan 0% · New Mexico 100%

Final margin
New Mexico by 31
Luck in points
3.9 for New Mexico
Luck-adjusted margin
New Mexico by 27.1
Replay with same day's form
Central Michigan 1% · New Mexico 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Central Michigan · New Mexico

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