luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Sacramento State beat Mississippi Valley State 52–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Sacramento State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Sacramento State was a 99% favorite.

Final

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 0
Sacramento State Hornets 52

September 5, 2026 · Hornet Stadium · Closing line: Sacramento State −38.5

Luck index 0 Sacramento State about even · 0 Mississippi Valley State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mississippi Valley State wins 0, Sacramento State wins 10.

  1. 1 MVSU 3 SAC 10
  2. 2 MVSU 0 SAC 16
  3. 3 MVSU 3 SAC 23
  4. 4 MVSU 0 SAC 23
  5. 5 MVSU 0 SAC 27
  6. 6 MVSU 0 SAC 29
  7. 7 MVSU 10 SAC 42
  8. 8 MVSU 3 SAC 38
  9. 9 MVSU 3 SAC 44
  10. 10 MVSU 0 SAC 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mississippi Valley State wins 0% of them, Sacramento State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Sacramento State by 52.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mississippi Valley State by 17+0.0%
Mississippi Valley State by 9–160.0%
Mississippi Valley State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Sacramento State by 1–81.2%
Sacramento State by 9–164.9%
Sacramento State by 17+93.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to Sacramento State: the final margin was Sacramento State by 52, without the luck Sacramento State by 44.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Sari, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
  • G. Meadors, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Meadors, 22 yds missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mississippi Valley State 10 for 113 yards, Sacramento State 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:08 Delay of Game on Mississippi Valley State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MVSU +0.6 pts
Q1 9:06 Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards 0% MVSU +1.4 pts
Q1 7:06 Personal Foul on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yards 0% SAC +2.0 pts
Q1 0:13 Personal Foul on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yards 0% SAC +1.6 pts
Q2 12:55 Roughing the Passer on Mississippi Valley State, 13 yards 0% SAC +0.3 pts
Q2 11:07 Pass Interference on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yards 0% SAC +0.8 pts
Q2 10:27 False Start on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MVSU +0.8 pts
Q2 6:50 Delay of Game on Mississippi Valley State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SAC +0.6 pts
Q2 5:58 Personal Foul on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% SAC +1.1 pts
Q2 0:23 Personal Foul on Mississippi Valley State, 10 yards 0% SAC +0.1 pts
Q3 0:49 Illegal Formation on Mississippi Valley State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SAC +1.3 pts
Q3 0:25 Roughing the Passer on Sacramento State, 15 yards 0% MVSU +1.6 pts
Q4 1:47 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yards 0% SAC +1.6 pts

When it happened

Sacramento State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Sacramento State was ahead in it, below while Mississippi Valley State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:05 Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% MVSU SAC: Punt
2 Q1 12:26 Mississippi Valley State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% SAC MVSU: Punt
3 Q1 10:52 Sacramento State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +0% SAC SAC: Turnover
4 Q1 9:06 Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% MVSU MVSU: Missed field goal
5 Q1 7:10 Mississippi Valley State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% SAC MVSU: Missed field goal
6 Q1 7:06 L. Sari missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for himPersonal Foul on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% SAC MVSU: Punt
7 Q1 5:41 Sacramento State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +0% MVSU SAC: Punt
8 Q2 5:58 Personal Foul on Mississippi Valley State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% SAC SAC: Missed field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mississippi Valley State 0% · Sacramento State 100%

Final margin
Sacramento State by 52
Luck in points
7.2 for Sacramento State
Luck-adjusted margin
Sacramento State by 44.8
Replay with same day's form
Mississippi Valley State 0% · Sacramento State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Mississippi Valley State · Sacramento State

More from Week 1 2026

Every week 1 game, 2026