Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Kent State at Texas Tech, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas Tech beat Kent State 62–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 14 |
|---|---|
 Texas Tech Red Raiders | 62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas Tech about even · 0 Kent State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 0, Texas Tech wins 10.
- 1 KENT 10 TTU 24
- 2 KENT 10 TTU 31
- 3 KENT 9 TTU 35
- 4 KENT 0 TTU 30
- 5 KENT 0 TTU 34
- 6 KENT 14 TTU 51
- 7 KENT 7 TTU 48
- 8 KENT 0 TTU 45
- 9 KENT 0 TTU 50
- 10 KENT 0 TTU 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 0% of them, Texas Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas Tech by 48.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Texas Tech by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Texas Tech by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Texas Tech by 17+ | 96.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- U. Bellenfant, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- S. Harrington, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: Kent State 2 for 14 yards, Texas Tech 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2:42 | False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENT +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:41 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% KENT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:01 | Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:52 | Holding on Kent State, 9 yards | 0% TTU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:46 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TTU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:29 | Holding on Texas Tech, 10 yards | 0% KENT +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:15 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:05 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% TTU | KENT: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:57 | Kent State was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% TTU | KENT: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:14 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% TTU | KENT: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:52 | Texas Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% TTU | TTU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 5:01 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +0% TTU | KENT: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 4:52 | Holding on Kent State, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TTU | TTU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 0:46 | Offside on Texas Tech, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TTU | KENT: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 0% · Texas Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Texas Tech by 48
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for Texas Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas Tech by 44.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 0% · Texas Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Kent State · 
Texas Tech
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner