Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Kent State at Florida State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida State beat Kent State 66–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida State was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Kent State Golden Flashes | 10 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Florida State about even · 0 Kent State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kent State wins 0, Florida State wins 10.
- 1 KENT 17 FSU 58
- 2 KENT 10 FSU 59
- 3 KENT 13 FSU 66
- 4 KENT 21 FSU 77
- 5 KENT 7 FSU 66
- 6 KENT 14 FSU 77
- 7 KENT 0 FSU 66
- 8 KENT 7 FSU 77
- 9 KENT 0 FSU 73
- 10 KENT 0 FSU 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kent State wins 0% of them, Florida State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kent State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Kent State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 97.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Weinberg, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- W. Hryszko, 38 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Kent State 5 for 39 yards, Florida State 5 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:19 | Illegal Snap on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:13 | Face Mask on Kent State, 12 yards | 0% FSU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 2:10 | Intentional Grounding on Kent State, 7 yards | 0% FSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:42 | Delay of Game on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 0:51 | Personal Foul on Kent State, 10 yards | 0% FSU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:02 | Face Mask on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% KENT +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:00 | Roughing the Kicker on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% KENT +4.3 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | Face Mask on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% KENT +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:00 | Holding on Florida State, 9 yards, wiping out the play | 0% KENT +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:31 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% FSU | KENT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:18 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% FSU | KENT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:40 | Florida State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:59 | Florida State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:13 | Face Mask on Kent State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:05 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 11% expected | +0% FSU | KENT: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 0:51 | Personal Foul on Kent State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 14:09 | Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% FSU | KENT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kent State 0% · Florida State 100%
- Final margin
- Florida State by 56
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Florida State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 49.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kent State 0% · Florida State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Kent State · 
Florida State
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Toledo at Western Michigan WMU 14–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- SMU at TCU TCU 35–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Carolina at UCF UCF 34–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- California at San Diego State SDSU 34–0 · replay 92% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner