Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Ball State at Toledo, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Ball State 38–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Ball State Cardinals | 9 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Toledo about even · 0 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Toledo wins 10.
- 1 BALL 14 TOL 31
- 2 BALL 6 TOL 30
- 3 BALL 0 TOL 30
- 4 BALL 7 TOL 41
- 5 BALL 10 TOL 47
- 6 BALL 7 TOL 48
- 7 BALL 0 TOL 45
- 8 BALL 0 TOL 50
- 9 BALL 10 TOL 65
- 10 BALL 0 TOL 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ball State wins 0% of them, Toledo 100%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ball State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 97.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Pippin, 40 yds missed · 72% expected
- D. Pippin, 47 yds made · 58% expected
- D. Cunanan, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Ball State 4 for 32 yards, Toledo 9 for 85 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:26 | Face Mask on Toledo, 15 yards | +1% BALL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 11:28 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:58 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:54 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | 0% TOL +2.3 pts |
| Q2 8:40 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% BALL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:25 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BALL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:25 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:54 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% BALL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:36 | Roughing the Passer on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% BALL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:34 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:40 | Personal Foul on Ball State, 12 yards | 0% TOL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:36 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:58 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% BALL | TOL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:26 | Face Mask on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% BALL | BALL: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 12:11 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% TOL | BALL: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 11:28 | Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 4:26 | Ball State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% BALL | BALL: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 5:54 | Ball State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% BALL | BALL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 3:26 | D. Pippin made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ before | +0% BALL | BALL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:43 | Ball State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +1% TOL | BALL: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ball State 0% · Toledo 100%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 29
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 27.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ball State 0% · Toledo 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Ball State · 
Toledo
More from Week 13 2025
- Akron at Bowling Green AKR 19–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Kent State CMU 28–16 · replay 65% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Buffalo M-OH 37–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Ohio OHIO 42–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Northern Illinois WMU 35–19 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner