Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Saint Francis at Buffalo, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Buffalo beat Saint Francis 45–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Buffalo wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Buffalo was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Saint Francis Red Flash | 6 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bulls | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Buffalo about even · 0 Saint Francis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saint Francis wins 0, Buffalo wins 10.
- 1 SFPA 7 BUF 24
- 2 SFPA 0 BUF 21
- 3 SFPA 3 BUF 30
- 4 SFPA 7 BUF 37
- 5 SFPA 3 BUF 37
- 6 SFPA 0 BUF 37
- 7 SFPA 0 BUF 41
- 8 SFPA 0 BUF 44
- 9 SFPA 3 BUF 51
- 10 SFPA 0 BUF 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saint Francis wins 0% of them, Buffalo 100%. The line is what actually happened: Buffalo by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saint Francis by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Saint Francis by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Saint Francis by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Buffalo by 17+ | 96.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Howes, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Saint Francis 4 for 28 yards, Buffalo 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:01 | False Start on Saint Francis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:01 | Delay of Game on Saint Francis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:50 | False Start on Saint Francis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:13 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards | 0% SFPA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Intentional Grounding on Saint Francis, 13 yards | 0% BUF +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Buffalo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:56 | Saint Francis was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% BUF | SFPA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 14:05 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedBlocked punt by BuffaloSpecial teams | +0% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 12:20 | Saint Francis was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +0% BUF | SFPA: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 10:40 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 5:56 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 0:50 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedFalse Start on Saint Francis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% BUF | BUF: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 8:13 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedHolding on Buffalo, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% SFPA | BUF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:06 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedBuffalo converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedSaint Francis missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saint Francis 0% · Buffalo 100%
- Final margin
- Buffalo by 39
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Buffalo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buffalo by 29.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Saint Francis 0% · Buffalo 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Saint Francis · 
Buffalo
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- West Virginia at Ohio OHIO 17–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Toledo TOL 45–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Akron at Nebraska NEB 68–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Texas Tech TTU 62–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Pittsburgh PITT 45–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Ball State at Auburn AUB 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner