College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28
Central Michigan vs Ball State prediction and pick
Our Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals pick: Central Michigan by 2.4, 56% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Central Michigan by 2.4Central Michigan win 56%Ball State win 44%494235282114707142128354249← Central Michigan win byBall State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Central Michigan win
55.7%
Ball State win
44.3%
Middle 50%: Central Michigan by 14 to Ball State by 9
50%
Middle 90%: Central Michigan by 31 to Ball State by 26
90%
Middle 95%: Central Michigan by 35 to Ball State by 31
95%
Exactly Central Michigan by 3
6.5%
Exactly Ball State by 3
6.2%
Exactly Central Michigan by 7
5.1%
Exactly Ball State by 7
4.5%
Exactly Central Michigan by 14
3.3%
P50
Half of games like this end between Central Michigan by 14 and Ball State by 9.
P90
9 in 10 between Central Michigan by 31 and Ball State by 26.
P95
19 in 20 between Central Michigan by 35 and Ball State by 31.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Central Michigan vs Ball State: questions and answers
Who will win Central Michigan vs Ball State?
Our forecast picks Central Michigan, with 56% to win; Ball State win 44% of the time.
What’s the spread for Central Michigan vs Ball State?
Our spread: Central Michigan −2.4. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Central Michigan vs Ball State?
Saturday, November 28, 2026, at 12:00 pm ET, at Scheumann Stadium.
Central Michigan at 
Ball State
