Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Ball State at Purdue, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Purdue beat Ball State 31–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Purdue wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Purdue was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Ball State Cardinals | 0 |
|---|---|
 Purdue Boilermakers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Purdue about even · −1 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Purdue wins 10.
- 1 BALL 17 PUR 21
- 2 BALL 5 PUR 17
- 3 BALL 7 PUR 24
- 4 BALL 3 PUR 24
- 5 BALL 8 PUR 31
- 6 BALL 13 PUR 38
- 7 BALL 0 PUR 28
- 8 BALL 3 PUR 34
- 9 BALL 0 PUR 35
- 10 BALL 0 PUR 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ball State wins 1% of them, Purdue 99%. The line is what actually happened: Purdue by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ball State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Purdue by 1–8 | 4.7% |
| Purdue by 9–16 | 10.8% |
| Purdue by 17+ | 82.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Holmer, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- S. Porath, 28 yds made · 86% expected
- C. Holmer, 29 yds missed · 87% expected
Penalties: Ball State 2 for 13 yards, Purdue 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:51 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yards | +1% PUR +0.9 pts |
| Q1 11:27 | False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | False Start on Ball State, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% PUR 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:40 | Disconcerting Signals on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BALL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Personal Foul on Purdue, 15 yards | 0% BALL +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Purdue’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:51 | Holding on Ball State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% PUR | PUR: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:47 | Purdue converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% PUR | PUR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:16 | Ball State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% BALL | BALL: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:54 | Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% PUR | BALL: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:54 | Purdue was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +0% BALL | PUR: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 10:21 | Purdue converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +0% PUR | PUR: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:10 | Ball State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% BALL | BALL: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 7:18 | C. Holmer missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +0% PUR | BALL: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ball State 0% · Purdue 100%
- Final margin
- Purdue by 31
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Purdue
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Purdue by 24.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Ball State 1% · Purdue 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Ball State · 
Purdue
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Holy Cross at Northern Illinois NIU 19–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Merrimack at Kent State KENT 21–17 · replay 63% for the winner
- Central Michigan at San José State CMU 16–14 · replay 65% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Temple at Massachusetts TEM 42–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner