luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Ball State at Ohio State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Ohio State beat Ball State 56–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio State was a 100% favorite.

Final

Ball State Cardinals 3
Ohio State Buckeyes 56

September 5, 2026 · Ohio Stadium · Closing line: Ohio State −50.5

Luck index 0 Ohio State about even · 0 Ball State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.

  1. 1 BALL 14 OSU 42
  2. 2 BALL 14 OSU 52
  3. 3 BALL 23 OSU 66
  4. 4 BALL 2 OSU 49
  5. 5 BALL 0 OSU 50
  6. 6 BALL 7 OSU 61
  7. 7 BALL 3 OSU 59
  8. 8 BALL 6 OSU 68
  9. 9 BALL 6 OSU 72
  10. 10 BALL 3 OSU 77

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ball State wins 0% of them, Ohio State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 53.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ball State by 17+0.0%
Ball State by 9–160.0%
Ball State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Ohio State by 1–80.8%
Ohio State by 9–162.3%
Ohio State by 17+96.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to Ohio State: the final margin was Ohio State by 53, without the luck Ohio State by 50.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Ball State 3 for 15 yards, Ohio State 9 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:23 Delay of Game on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +0.7 pts
Q2 12:08 Horse Collar Tackle on Ohio State, 15 yards 0% BALL +0.9 pts
Q3 13:26 Holding on Ohio State, 6 yards 0% BALL +0.4 pts
Q3 8:20 Offside on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +0.3 pts
Q3 6:17 False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +1.4 pts
Q3 4:39 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards 0% BALL +2.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards 0% BALL +1.2 pts
Q4 14:16 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards 0% BALL +1.9 pts
Q4 14:16 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% BALL +1.3 pts
Q4 14:16 False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +1.1 pts
Q4 5:52 False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +0.4 pts
Q4 1:55 Offside on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BALL +0.3 pts

When it happened

Ohio State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ohio State was ahead in it, below while Ball State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% OSU OSU: Punt
2 Q1 14:14 Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% OSU BALL: Punt
3 Q1 12:05 Ohio State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% OSU OSU: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:22 Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% OSU BALL: Punt
5 Q1 5:52 Ohio State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% OSU OSU: Touchdown
6 Q2 15:00 Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% OSU OSU: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:08 Ohio State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedBall State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedBall State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedHorse Collar Tackle on Ohio State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% OSU OSU: Punt
8 Q2 7:42 Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% OSU OSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ball State 0% · Ohio State 100%

Final margin
Ohio State by 53
Luck in points
2.6 for Ohio State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio State by 50.4
Replay with same day's form
Ball State 0% · Ohio State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Ball State · Ohio State

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