Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Northern Illinois at Iowa, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Northern Illinois 40–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 0 |
|---|---|
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Iowa about even · 0 Northern Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 0, Iowa wins 10.
- 1 NIU 3 IOWA 27
- 2 NIU 14 IOWA 45
- 3 NIU 3 IOWA 40
- 4 NIU 12 IOWA 52
- 5 NIU 0 IOWA 43
- 6 NIU 0 IOWA 47
- 7 NIU 3 IOWA 54
- 8 NIU 0 IOWA 55
- 9 NIU 0 IOWA 59
- 10 NIU 0 IOWA 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Illinois wins 0% of them, Iowa 100%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 40.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Iowa by 17+ | 98.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Buhr, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- C. Buhr, 45 yds made · 62% expected
- C. Buhr, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Northern Illinois 6 for 46 yards, Iowa 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:40 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 6 yards | 0% IOWA +1.9 pts |
| Q1 10:14 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NIU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 9:15 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yards | 0% IOWA +1.7 pts |
| Q1 0:17 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NIU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:19 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NIU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 9:42 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | 0% IOWA +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 10 yards | 0% NIU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 13:07 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:37 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | 0% NIU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | Offside on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:20 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +2.8 pts |
| Q3 4:14 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | 0% NIU +2.4 pts |
| Q4 4:49 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | 0% NIU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Iowa’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:40 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:14 | False Start on Iowa, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% NIU | NIU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:52 | Iowa converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedIowa missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:15 | Holding on Northern Illinois, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:05 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% IOWA | NIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 6:05 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% IOWA | NIU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 13:45 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% NIU | IOWA: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 12:34 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% NIU | IOWA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Illinois 0% · Iowa 100%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 40
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Northern Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 41.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Illinois 0% · Iowa 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Northern Illinois · 
Iowa
More from Week 1 2026
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ohio at Nebraska NEB 49–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner