Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Fordham at North Dakota State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
North Dakota State beat Fordham 38–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Dakota State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff North Dakota State was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Fordham Rams | 0 |
|---|---|
 North Dakota State Bison | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 North Dakota State about even · 0 Fordham
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fordham wins 0, North Dakota State wins 10.
- 1 FOR 3 NDSU 14
- 2 FOR 10 NDSU 28
- 3 FOR 7 NDSU 28
- 4 FOR 13 NDSU 37
- 5 FOR 3 NDSU 30
- 6 FOR 0 NDSU 29
- 7 FOR 0 NDSU 33
- 8 FOR 7 NDSU 42
- 9 FOR 0 NDSU 41
- 10 FOR 0 NDSU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fordham wins 0% of them, North Dakota State 100%. The line is what actually happened: North Dakota State by 38.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fordham by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Fordham by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Fordham by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| North Dakota State by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| North Dakota State by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| North Dakota State by 17+ | 92.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Klein, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- J. Onuonga, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
Penalties: Fordham 7 for 42 yards, North Dakota State 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:42 | Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yards | 0% FOR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:21 | False Start on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:42 | Illegal Substitution on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FOR 0.0 pts |
| Q2 8:10 | Offside on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:33 | Holding on Fordham, 10 yards | 0% NDSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 11:06 | Face Mask on Fordham, 7 yards | 0% NDSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:26 | Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% FOR +1.3 pts |
| Q4 14:10 | False Start on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NDSU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 13:40 | Holding on North Dakota State, 10 yards | 0% FOR +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Fordham, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NDSU +1.4 pts |
When it happened
North Dakota State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:42 | North Dakota State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedHolding on North Dakota State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% FOR | NDSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:23 | North Dakota State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% FOR | NDSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 5:43 | Fordham converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% FOR | FOR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:02 | Fordham was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% NDSU | FOR: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:08 | Fordham fumbled and North Dakota State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% NDSU | FOR: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:42 | Illegal Substitution on Fordham, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% FOR | NDSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 4:34 | Fordham converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% FOR | FOR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:33 | Holding on Fordham, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% NDSU | NDSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fordham 0% · North Dakota State 100%
- Final margin
- North Dakota State by 38
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for North Dakota State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Dakota State by 34.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Fordham 0% · North Dakota State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Fordham · 
North Dakota State
More from Week 1 2026
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- UTEP at Oklahoma OU 51–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Central Michigan at New Mexico UNM 38–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lafayette at UConn CONN 56–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duquesne at Air Force AF 34–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Iowa IOWA 40–0 · replay 100% for the winner