Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Duquesne at Air Force, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Air Force beat Duquesne 34–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Air Force wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Air Force was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Duquesne Dukes | 0 |
|---|---|
 Air Force Falcons | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Air Force about even · 0 Duquesne
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duquesne wins 0, Air Force wins 10.
- 1 DUQ 10 AF 23
- 2 DUQ 0 AF 20
- 3 DUQ 0 AF 24
- 4 DUQ 6 AF 33
- 5 DUQ 0 AF 29
- 6 DUQ 0 AF 31
- 7 DUQ 3 AF 37
- 8 DUQ 0 AF 37
- 9 DUQ 0 AF 41
- 10 DUQ 0 AF 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duquesne wins 0% of them, Air Force 100%. The line is what actually happened: Air Force by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duquesne by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Duquesne by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Duquesne by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 4.0% |
| Air Force by 17+ | 95.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Cremascoli, 21 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Cremascoli, 52 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Duquesne 4 for 20 yards, Air Force 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:04 | Delay of Game on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUQ +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:25 | Illegal Touching on Air Force, 0 yards, wiping out the play | 0% DUQ +3.6 pts |
| Q2 4:36 | Holding on Air Force, 10 yards | 0% DUQ +1.7 pts |
| Q2 4:04 | Delay of Game on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:34 | False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:06 | False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUQ +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Face Mask on Air Force, 15 yards | 0% DUQ +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:33 | Holding on Air Force, 5 yards | 0% DUQ +0.3 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yards | 0% DUQ +2.0 pts |
| Q4 6:53 | False Start on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:57 | Delay of Game on Duquesne, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AF +0.2 pts |
| Q4 4:23 | False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUQ +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Air Force’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Air Force converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:14 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% DUQ | AF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:49 | Air Force converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +0% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:47 | Duquesne converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% DUQ | DUQ: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:28 | Duquesne was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% AF | DUQ: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 2:04 | Delay of Game on Air Force, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% DUQ | DUQ: Turnover |
| 7 | Q1 1:19 | Air Force converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +0% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 14:50 | Air Force converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% AF | AF: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duquesne 0% · Air Force 100%
- Final margin
- Air Force by 34
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Air Force by 27.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Duquesne 0% · Air Force 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Duquesne · 
Air Force
More from Week 1 2026
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico State NMSU 51–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner
- UTEP at Oklahoma OU 51–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Central Michigan at New Mexico UNM 38–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Fordham at North Dakota State NDSU 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Long Island University at Kansas KU 51–6 · replay 100% for the winner