Week 1 2026 · September 4, 2026
UTEP at Oklahoma, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Oklahoma beat UTEP 51–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oklahoma wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oklahoma was a 100% favorite.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 0 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma Sooners | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Oklahoma about even · −1 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 0, Oklahoma wins 10.
- 1 UTEP 13 OU 20
- 2 UTEP 7 OU 21
- 3 UTEP 6 OU 24
- 4 UTEP 3 OU 24
- 5 UTEP 0 OU 24
- 6 UTEP 0 OU 28
- 7 UTEP 10 OU 42
- 8 UTEP 3 OU 38
- 9 UTEP 0 OU 38
- 10 UTEP 0 OU 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 1% of them, Oklahoma 99%. The line is what actually happened: Oklahoma by 51.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 0.1% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 3.1% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 91.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Arreola, 33 yds missed · 81% expected
- C. Arreola, 50 yds missed · 51% expected
- T. Sandell, 33 yds made · 89% expected
- T. Sandell, 32 yds made · 90% expected
- L. Evans, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- C. Arreola, 41 yds missed · 67% expected
Penalties: UTEP 4 for 35 yards, Oklahoma 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:56 | Delay of Game on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:01 | Offside on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:59 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UTEP +3.8 pts |
| Q2 1:31 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 15 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:35 | Unnecessary Roughness on UTEP, 15 yards | 0% OU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:05 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | 0% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:01 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTEP +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:13 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:16 | Oklahoma converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +0% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:49 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% OU | UTEP: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:27 | Return touchdown by OklahomaSpecial teams | +0% OU | OU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:34 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +0% OU | UTEP: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q1 3:30 | C. Arreola missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him | +0% OU | UTEP: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q2 13:04 | UTEP converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% UTEP | UTEP: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 10:51 | C. Arreola missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ before | +0% OU | UTEP: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 0% · Oklahoma 100%
- Final margin
- Oklahoma by 51
- Luck in points
- 15.7 for Oklahoma
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oklahoma by 35.3
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 1% · Oklahoma 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
UTEP · 
Oklahoma
More from Week 1 2026
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- San José State at Eastern Michigan SJSU 27–21 · replay 65% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- UNLV at Hawai'i UNLV 21–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Stanford STAN 37–27 · replay 97% for the winner
- North Alabama at Arkansas ARK 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas State at Texas TEX 59–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- San José State at USC USC 42–26 · replay 98% for the winner