luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Lafayette at UConn, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

UConn beat Lafayette 56–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UConn wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff UConn was a 92% favorite.

Final

Lafayette Leopards 7
UConn Huskies 56

September 5, 2026 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · Closing line: UConn −21.5

Luck index 0 UConn about even · 0 Lafayette

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lafayette wins 0, UConn wins 10.

  1. 1 LAF 17 CONN 27
  2. 2 LAF 14 CONN 31
  3. 3 LAF 7 CONN 30
  4. 4 LAF 10 CONN 37
  5. 5 LAF 7 CONN 37
  6. 6 LAF 3 CONN 37
  7. 7 LAF 0 CONN 38
  8. 8 LAF 3 CONN 45
  9. 9 LAF 10 CONN 58
  10. 10 LAF 10 CONN 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lafayette wins 0% of them, UConn 100%. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lafayette by 17+0.0%
Lafayette by 9–160.1%
Lafayette by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.2%
UConn by 1–82.0%
UConn by 9–164.5%
UConn by 17+93.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.2 points to UConn: the final margin was UConn by 49, without the luck UConn by 38.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Lafayette 4 for 30 yards, UConn 11 for 128 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:57 False Start on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.6 pts
Q1 6:29 False Start on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.7 pts
Q1 0:46 Pass Interference on Lafayette, 15 yards 0% CONN +0.6 pts
Q2 14:27 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LAF +1.4 pts
Q2 12:05 Delay of Game on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CONN +0.3 pts
Q2 11:54 Holding on UConn, 10 yards 0% LAF +0.9 pts
Q2 9:10 Illegal Use of Hands on UConn, 10 yards 0% LAF +1.3 pts
Q2 2:51 Holding on UConn, 10 yards 0% LAF +1.6 pts
Q2 1:02 Holding on UConn, 9 yards, wiping out the play 0% CONN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:02 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LAF +1.7 pts
Q2 0:25 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LAF +6.9 pts
Q3 9:16 Face Mask on UConn, 15 yards 0% LAF +1.7 pts
Q3 7:06 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards 0% LAF +1.7 pts
Q4 1:54 Illegal Use of Hands on UConn, 15 yards 0% LAF +1.6 pts
Q4 0:57 Pass Interference on UConn, 14 yards 0% LAF +1.4 pts

When it happened

UConn’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UConn was ahead in it, below while Lafayette was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:50 UConn converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +2% CONN CONN: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:57 False Start on Lafayette, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% CONN CONN: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:06 UConn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% CONN CONN: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:23 UConn was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% LAF CONN: Touchdown
5 Q1 7:15 UConn converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +1% CONN CONN: Touchdown
6 Q1 6:29 False Start on Lafayette, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% CONN CONN: Touchdown
7 Q1 1:43 UConn converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +0% CONN CONN: Punt
8 Q2 14:27 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% LAF LAF: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lafayette 0% · UConn 100%

Final margin
UConn by 49
Luck in points
10.2 for UConn
Luck-adjusted margin
UConn by 38.8
Replay with same day's form
Lafayette 0% · UConn 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Lafayette · UConn

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