College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
North Dakota State vs Hawai'i prediction and pick
Our North Dakota State Bison at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors pick: North Dakota State by 14.6, 81% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Sat, Nov 14, 11:59 pm ET · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
North Dakota State by 14.6 · 81% to win
Ours: North Dakota State by 14.6North Dakota State win 81%Hawai'i win 19%5649423528211470714212835424956← North Dakota State win byHawai'i win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
North Dakota State win
80.7%
Hawai'i win
19.3%
Middle 50%: North Dakota State by 26 to North Dakota State by 3
50%
Middle 90%: North Dakota State by 42 to Hawai'i by 14
90%
Middle 95%: North Dakota State by 48 to Hawai'i by 19
95%
Exactly North Dakota State by 3
5.2%
Exactly North Dakota State by 7
4.8%
Exactly North Dakota State by 14
4.2%
Exactly North Dakota State by 17
4.0%
Exactly North Dakota State by 21
3.9%
P50
Half of games like this end between North Dakota State by 26 and North Dakota State by 3.
P90
9 in 10 between North Dakota State by 42 and Hawai'i by 14.
P95
19 in 20 between North Dakota State by 48 and Hawai'i by 19.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
North Dakota State vs Hawai'i: questions and answers
Who will win North Dakota State vs Hawai'i?
Our forecast picks North Dakota State, with 81% to win; Hawai'i win 19% of the time.
What’s the spread for North Dakota State vs Hawai'i?
Our spread: North Dakota State −14.6. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is North Dakota State vs Hawai'i?
Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 11:59 pm ET, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
North Dakota State at 
Hawai'i
