College football · Week 5 2026 · Saturday, October 3
Wyoming vs North Dakota State prediction and pick
Our Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State Bison pick: North Dakota State by 23.2, 93% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.0, so about 57% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: North Dakota State by 23.2Wyoming win 7%North Dakota State win 93%5649423528211470714212835424956← Wyoming win byNorth Dakota State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Wyoming win
7.2%
North Dakota State win
92.8%
Middle 50%: North Dakota State by 13 to North Dakota State by 34
50%
Middle 90%: Wyoming by 3 to North Dakota State by 49
90%
Middle 95%: Wyoming by 8 to North Dakota State by 55
95%
Exactly North Dakota State by 28
4.4%
Exactly North Dakota State by 21
4.4%
Exactly North Dakota State by 17
4.0%
Exactly North Dakota State by 14
3.7%
Exactly North Dakota State by 24
3.5%
P50
Half of games like this end between North Dakota State by 13 and North Dakota State by 34.
P90
9 in 10 between Wyoming by 3 and North Dakota State by 49.
P95
19 in 20 between Wyoming by 8 and North Dakota State by 55.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Wyoming vs North Dakota State: questions and answers
Who will win Wyoming vs North Dakota State?
Our forecast picks North Dakota State, with 93% to win; Wyoming win 7% of the time.
What’s the spread for Wyoming vs North Dakota State?
Our spread: North Dakota State −23.2. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Wyoming vs North Dakota State?
Saturday, October 3, 2026, at 3:30 pm ET, at Fargodome.
Wyoming at 
North Dakota State
