Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Michigan at Nebraska, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Nebraska 30–27, but the replays lean toward Nebraska: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Michigan.
Before kickoff Michigan was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:43 left): D. Zvada made a 56-yard field goal, worth 8 points of win probability to Michigan.
Final
 Michigan Wolverines | 30 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Michigan very lucky · −61 Nebraska
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Michigan wins 4, Nebraska wins 6.
- 1 MICH 45 NEB 24
- 2 MICH 24 NEB 12
- 3 MICH 27 NEB 20
- 4 MICH 27 NEB 24
- 5 MICH 17 NEB 20
- 6 MICH 24 NEB 28
- 7 MICH 23 NEB 31
- 8 MICH 14 NEB 27
- 9 MICH 16 NEB 34
- 10 MICH 13 NEB 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Michigan wins 39% of them, Nebraska 61%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Michigan by 17+ | 9.4% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 10.1% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 20.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Cunanan, 44 yds missed · 66% expected
- D. Zvada, 46 yds made · 66% expected
- K. Cunanan, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- D. Zvada, 56 yds made · 49% expected
- K. Cunanan, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Zvada, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Michigan 4 for 39 yards, Nebraska 3 for 9 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:49 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEB +1.1 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MICH +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:08 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 4 yards | +1% NEB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:23 | Delay of Game on Nebraska, 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% MICH +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan, 15 yards | +8% NEB +4.5 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Illegal Touching on Nebraska, 0 yards | 0% MICH +1.2 pts |
| Q4 1:44 | Pass Interference on Michigan, 15 yards | +1% NEB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:00 | K. Cunanan missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +5% MICH | NEB: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 2:01 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:57 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% NEB | MICH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:43 | D. Zvada made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 11 of 12 from 45+ before | +8% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:51 | Nebraska was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 14:14 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +4% NEB | MICH: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:18 | Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% MICH | MICH: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 9:01 | Michigan converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% MICH | MICH: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Michigan 27% · Nebraska 73%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nebraska by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Michigan 39% · Nebraska 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Michigan · 
Nebraska
More from Week 4 2025
- Iowa at Rutgers IOWA 38–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Washington at Washington State WASH 59–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Maryland at Wisconsin MD 27–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan State at USC USC 45–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oregon State at Oregon ORE 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Purdue at Notre Dame ND 56–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois at Indiana IU 63–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner