Week 4 2025 · September 19, 2025
Iowa at Rutgers, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Rutgers 38–28, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:46 left): J. Patel had a 29-yard field goal blocked, worth 13 points of win probability to Iowa.
Final
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 38 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Iowa about even · −20 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa wins 8, Rutgers wins 2.
- 1 IOWA 49 RUTG 14
- 2 IOWA 34 RUTG 7
- 3 IOWA 38 RUTG 17
- 4 IOWA 35 RUTG 17
- 5 IOWA 35 RUTG 21
- 6 IOWA 37 RUTG 27
- 7 IOWA 48 RUTG 41
- 8 IOWA 41 RUTG 38
- 9 IOWA 13 RUTG 17
- 10 IOWA 21 RUTG 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa wins 80% of them, Rutgers 20%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa by 17+ | 38.9% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 11.0% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 5.5% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Patel, 37 yds missed · 80% expected
- D. Stevens, 40 yds missed · 75% expected
- J. Patel, 29 yds blocked · 89% expected
- D. Stevens, 26 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Iowa 2 for 30 yards, Rutgers 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:43 | Offside on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IOWA +1.0 pts |
| Q1 3:30 | Personal Foul on Rutgers, 7 yards | +3% IOWA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:44 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +2% IOWA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:48 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | +4% RUTG +1.7 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | +6% RUTG +2.2 pts |
| Q2 2:45 | Delay of Game on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% RUTG +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Face Mask on Rutgers, 13 yards | 0% IOWA +1.5 pts |
| Q4 7:55 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +11% IOWA +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:07 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% IOWA | RUTG: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q2 6:44 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% RUTG | RUTG: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:40 | J. Patel missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him | +7% IOWA | RUTG: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 9:37 | D. Stevens missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +8% RUTG | IOWA: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 8:49 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% IOWA | RUTG: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:46 | J. Patel had a 29-yard field goal blockedKicks · 89% expected for him | +13% IOWA | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:05 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% RUTG | IOWA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:55 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa 94% · Rutgers 6%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 10
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Iowa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 7.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa 80% · Rutgers 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Iowa · 
Rutgers
More from Week 4 2025
- Michigan at Nebraska MICH 30–27 · replay 39% for the winner
- Washington at Washington State WASH 59–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Maryland at Wisconsin MD 27–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan State at USC USC 45–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oregon State at Oregon ORE 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Purdue at Notre Dame ND 56–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois at Indiana IU 63–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner