Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Illinois at Indiana, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Illinois 63–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:26 left): Return touchdown by Indiana, worth 9 points of win probability to Indiana.
Final
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 10 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Illinois wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 ILL 17 IU 41
- 2 ILL 3 IU 34
- 3 ILL 10 IU 46
- 4 ILL 3 IU 43
- 5 ILL 7 IU 51
- 6 ILL 0 IU 48
- 7 ILL 13 IU 63
- 8 ILL 10 IU 63
- 9 ILL 0 IU 58
- 10 ILL 0 IU 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Illinois wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 53.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Illinois by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 98.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Illinois 2 for 8 yards, Indiana 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:11 | Holding on Illinois, 1 yard, wiping out the play | +1% IU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:05 | Personal Foul on Illinois, 7 yards | +1% IU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 11:35 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:40 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:17 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +3% IU | ILL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:35 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +2% IU | ILL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:26 | Return touchdown by IndianaSpecial teams | +9% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:20 | Indiana converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +2% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:53 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% ILL | IU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:31 | Indiana converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 13:05 | Personal Foul on Illinois, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +1% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 11:05 | Indiana converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% IU | IU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Illinois 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 53
- Luck in points
- 6.9 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 46.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Illinois 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Illinois · 
Indiana
More from Week 4 2025
- Michigan at Nebraska MICH 30–27 · replay 39% for the winner
- Iowa at Rutgers IOWA 38–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Washington at Washington State WASH 59–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Maryland at Wisconsin MD 27–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan State at USC USC 45–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oregon State at Oregon ORE 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Purdue at Notre Dame ND 56–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner