Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Wisconsin at Indiana, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Wisconsin 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Indiana about even · −1 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 WIS 9 IU 17
- 2 WIS 7 IU 21
- 3 WIS 3 IU 20
- 4 WIS 6 IU 27
- 5 WIS 3 IU 27
- 6 WIS 7 IU 35
- 7 WIS 7 IU 38
- 8 WIS 3 IU 37
- 9 WIS 6 IU 45
- 10 WIS 0 IU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 1% of them, Indiana 99%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 4.4% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 86.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Vakos, 44 yds missed · 63% expected
- N. Radicic, 37 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Wisconsin 1 for 5 yards, Indiana 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:39 | Offside on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WIS +2.5 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:56 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% WIS | WIS: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:54 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% IU | WIS: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:12 | Wisconsin converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +1% WIS | WIS: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:05 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% WIS | IU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 8:26 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% WIS | IU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:42 | Wisconsin converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +1% WIS | WIS: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 13:39 | Indiana converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:52 | Wisconsin fumbled and Indiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% IU | WIS: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 24
- Luck in points
- 7.0 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 17.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 1% · Indiana 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Indiana
More from Week 12 2025
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Maryland at Illinois ILL 24–6 · replay 92% for the winner
- Penn State at Michigan State PSU 28–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at Ohio State OSU 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Michigan vs Northwestern MICH 24–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Purdue at Washington WASH 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Minnesota at Oregon ORE 42–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner