luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 55 of the 62 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Purdue at Washington, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington beat Purdue 49–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington was an 83% favorite.

Final

Purdue Boilermakers 13
Washington Huskies 49

November 15, 2025 · Husky Stadium · Closing line: Washington −14.5

Luck index 0 Washington about even · 0 Purdue

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Purdue wins 0, Washington wins 10.

  1. 1 PUR 31 WASH 41
  2. 2 PUR 7 WASH 21
  3. 3 PUR 21 WASH 42
  4. 4 PUR 10 WASH 35
  5. 5 PUR 3 WASH 31
  6. 6 PUR 21 WASH 52
  7. 7 PUR 14 WASH 49
  8. 8 PUR 3 WASH 42
  9. 9 PUR 7 WASH 51
  10. 10 PUR 7 WASH 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Purdue wins 0% of them, Washington 100%. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 36.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Purdue by 17+0.0%
Purdue by 9–160.0%
Purdue by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Washington by 1–81.8%
Washington by 9–165.5%
Washington by 17+92.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to Purdue: the final margin was Washington by 36, without the luck Washington by 37.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Porath, 41 yds made · 70% expected
  • S. Porath, 53 yds made · 49% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Purdue 6 for 55 yards, Washington 4 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:00 Holding on Purdue, 10 yards +2% WASH +1.3 pts
Q1 12:07 False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WASH +0.7 pts
Q2 9:01 Ineligible Downfield on Purdue, 5 yards +7% WASH +0.6 pts
Q2 7:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards 0% PUR +0.9 pts
Q2 7:15 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington, 15 yards 0% PUR +0.9 pts
Q2 1:51 Pass Interference on Purdue, 15 yards 0% WASH +1.1 pts
Q3 11:10 Pass Interference on Washington, 10 yards 0% PUR +2.7 pts
Q3 1:21 False Start on Purdue, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.8 pts
Q4 12:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Purdue, 15 yards 0% WASH +0.9 pts
Q4 9:53 Holding on Washington, 10 yards 0% PUR +2.3 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Purdue was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:00 Holding on Purdue, 10 yardsJudgment calls +2% WASH WASH: Turnover
2 Q1 13:17 Washington fumbled and Purdue recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% PUR WASH: Punt
3 Q1 10:10 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% PUR WASH: Punt
4 Q1 8:26 Purdue converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% PUR PUR: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 7:28 Purdue was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +2% WASH PUR: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 6:52 Purdue was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedWashington converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% WASH PUR: Turnover
7 Q2 9:01 Ineligible Downfield on Purdue, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% WASH WASH: End of half
8 Q2 8:11 Purdue converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +2% PUR PUR: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Purdue 0% · Washington 100%

Final margin
Washington by 36
Luck in points
1.3 for Purdue
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 37.3
Replay with same day's form
Purdue 0% · Washington 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 55 of the 62 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Purdue · Washington

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