Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Maryland at Illinois, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat Maryland 24–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Illinois wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Illinois was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Maryland Terrapins | 6 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Illinois about even · −8 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maryland wins 1, Illinois wins 9.
- 1 MD 27 ILL 21
- 2 MD 21 ILL 24
- 3 MD 17 ILL 24
- 4 MD 20 ILL 31
- 5 MD 10 ILL 24
- 6 MD 3 ILL 20
- 7 MD 0 ILL 21
- 8 MD 3 ILL 27
- 9 MD 7 ILL 35
- 10 MD 3 ILL 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maryland wins 8% of them, Illinois 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maryland by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 54.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. O'Haire, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- S. O'Haire, 43 yds made · 69% expected
- D. Olano, 33 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Maryland 6 for 40 yards, Illinois 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:57 | Offside on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:56 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:35 | Delay of Game on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ILL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MD +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Offside on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:13 | Illegal Substitution on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:01 | Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:31 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:01 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 15 yards | 0% ILL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | 0% MD +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:15 | S. O'Haire made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +1% ILL | MD: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 4:52 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +2% ILL | MD: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 0:37 | Illinois converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% MD | ILL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:24 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% MD | ILL: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:30 | Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% ILL | MD: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 8:47 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% MD | ILL: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:25 | Illinois converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:11 | Maryland converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +1% MD | MD: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maryland 2% · Illinois 98%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 18
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 11.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Maryland 8% · Illinois 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Maryland · 
Illinois
More from Week 12 2025
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Penn State at Michigan State PSU 28–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at Ohio State OSU 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Michigan vs Northwestern MICH 24–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Indiana IU 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Purdue at Washington WASH 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Minnesota at Oregon ORE 42–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner