luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

Michigan vs Northwestern, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Michigan beat Northwestern 24–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 10 of 10. Northwestern had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Northwestern.

Before kickoff Michigan was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:53 left): Michigan converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to Michigan.

Final

Michigan Wolverines 24
Northwestern Wildcats 22

November 15, 2025 · Wrigley Field · Closing line: Michigan −10

Luck index +1 Michigan about even · −1 Northwestern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Michigan wins 10, Northwestern wins 0.

  1. 1 MICH 52 NU 6
  2. 2 MICH 45 NU 3
  3. 3 MICH 45 NU 10
  4. 4 MICH 35 NU 3
  5. 5 MICH 31 NU 3
  6. 6 MICH 35 NU 10
  7. 7 MICH 21 NU 0
  8. 8 MICH 35 NU 17
  9. 9 MICH 14 NU 0
  10. 10 MICH 17 NU 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Michigan wins 99% of them, Northwestern 1%. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Michigan by 17+89.6%
Michigan by 9–166.7%
Michigan by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.4%
Northwestern by 1–80.5%
Northwestern by 9–160.1%
Northwestern by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to Northwestern: the final margin was Michigan by 2, without the luck Michigan by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Zvada, 34 yds missed · 86% expected
  • J. Olsen, 34 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Olsen, 26 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Zvada, 60 yds missed · 42% expected
  • J. Olsen, 35 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Zvada, 31 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Michigan 2 for 10 yards, Northwestern 8 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:09 Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NU +1.8 pts
Q2 9:50 Offside on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NU +1.2 pts
Q2 6:29 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% MICH +3.7 pts
Q2 1:16 Penalty on Northwestern, 4 yards +6% MICH +2.8 pts
Q2 1:03 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MICH 0.0 pts
Q3 14:31 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MICH +0.7 pts
Q3 7:23 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MICH +0.5 pts
Q3 1:53 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards +3% MICH +2.1 pts
Q3 0:36 Intentional Grounding on Northwestern, 12 yards +1% MICH +0.7 pts
Q4 4:09 Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MICH +1.1 pts

When it happened

Northwestern’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northwestern was ahead in it, below while Michigan was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:29 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% MICH MICH: Turnover
2 Q2 1:16 Penalty on Northwestern, 4 yardsJudgment calls +6% MICH MICH: Missed field goal
3 Q4 4:56 Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% NU MICH: Turnover
4 Q4 4:20 Michigan fumbled and Northwestern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NU MICH: Field goal
5 Q4 4:09 Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MICH MICH: Field goal
6 Q4 1:53 Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% MICH MICH: Field goal
7 Q4 1:07 Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% MICH MICH: Field goal
8 Q4 0:43 Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% MICH MICH: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Michigan 81% · Northwestern 19%

Final margin
Michigan by 2
Luck in points
3.8 for Northwestern
Luck-adjusted margin
Michigan by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Michigan 99% · Northwestern 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Michigan · Northwestern

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