Week 12 2025 · November 14, 2025
Minnesota at Oregon, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Minnesota 42–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 13 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oregon about even · 0 Minnesota
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Minnesota wins 0, Oregon wins 10.
- 1 MINN 21 ORE 38
- 2 MINN 17 ORE 42
- 3 MINN 7 ORE 37
- 4 MINN 7 ORE 41
- 5 MINN 10 ORE 48
- 6 MINN 0 ORE 40
- 7 MINN 0 ORE 44
- 8 MINN 3 ORE 51
- 9 MINN 3 ORE 56
- 10 MINN 10 ORE 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Minnesota wins 0% of them, Oregon 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Minnesota by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 99.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Denaburg, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- B. Denaburg, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Minnesota 5 for 37 yards, Oregon 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:48 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:23 | Offside on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MINN +1.9 pts |
| Q1 6:35 | Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ORE +2.2 pts |
| Q1 0:30 | Illegal Formation on Oregon, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% MINN +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:48 | False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:45 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards | 0% MINN +2.4 pts |
| Q2 6:55 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 10 yards | 0% MINN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:13 | Delay of Game on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.1 pts |
| Q3 0:32 | Intentional Grounding on Minnesota, 12 yards | 0% ORE +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:48 | Oregon converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedFalse Start on Minnesota, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:35 | Holding on Minnesota, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% ORE | ORE: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 0:30 | Illegal Formation on Oregon, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +0% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:54 | Oregon fumbled and Minnesota recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% MINN | ORE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:45 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 6:01 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 4:33 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% MINN | MINN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 8:17 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% MINN | MINN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Minnesota 0% · Oregon 100%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 29
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Minnesota
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 32.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Minnesota 0% · Oregon 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Minnesota · 
Oregon
More from Week 12 2025
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Maryland at Illinois ILL 24–6 · replay 92% for the winner
- Penn State at Michigan State PSU 28–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- UCLA at Ohio State OSU 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Michigan vs Northwestern MICH 24–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Indiana IU 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Purdue at Washington WASH 49–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner