Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025
Georgia State at Ole Miss, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Ole Miss beat Georgia State 63–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ole Miss wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Georgia State Panthers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Ole Miss Rebels | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Ole Miss about even · 0 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia State wins 0, Ole Miss wins 10.
- 1 GAST 30 MISS 59
- 2 GAST 24 MISS 63
- 3 GAST 10 MISS 55
- 4 GAST 0 MISS 49
- 5 GAST 6 MISS 59
- 6 GAST 20 MISS 77
- 7 GAST 28 MISS 90
- 8 GAST 7 MISS 72
- 9 GAST 10 MISS 79
- 10 GAST 7 MISS 84
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia State wins 0% of them, Ole Miss 100%. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 56.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 99.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rickman, 31 yds missed · 84% expected
- L. Carneiro, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- L. Carneiro, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Georgia State 6 for 40 yards, Ole Miss 6 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:25 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | 0% MISS +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:52 | Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GAST +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Offside on Georgia State, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:21 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:48 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 6 yards | 0% GAST +1.2 pts |
| Q3 8:12 | False Start on Ole Miss, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:49 | Illegal Formation on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | Penalty on Georgia State, 15 yards | 0% MISS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Delay of Game on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:01 | Delay of Game on Georgia State, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.2 pts |
| Q4 8:03 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:48 | Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MISS +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Ole Miss’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:37 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% MISS | GAST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:29 | Georgia State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:32 | Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% MISS | GAST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:35 | Georgia State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +0% GAST | GAST: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 4:04 | L. Rickman missed a 31-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +0% MISS | GAST: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:52 | Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 0:31 | Ole Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:21 | Ole Miss’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOffside on Georgia State, 2 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MISS | MISS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia State 0% · Ole Miss 100%
- Final margin
- Ole Miss by 56
- Luck in points
- 13.0 for Ole Miss
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ole Miss by 43.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia State 0% · Ole Miss 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Georgia State · 
Ole Miss
More from Week 1 2025
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Virginia Tech vs South Carolina SC 24–11 · replay 51% for the winner
- LSU at Clemson LSU 17–10 · replay 59% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Auburn at Baylor AUB 38–24 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rice at Louisiana RICE 14–12 · replay 75% for the winner
- Nicholls at Troy TROY 38–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Syracuse vs Tennessee TENN 45–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas A&M TA&M 42–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Alabama at Florida State FSU 31–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saint Francis at UL Monroe ULM 29–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Toledo at Kentucky UK 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner